White House officials are considering the possibility that oil prices could reach $150 a barrel or more as the conflict with Iran extends into its second month. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, as noted in a Politico report from sources familiar with the internal discussions.
These discussions show a growing sense of urgency within the administration as energy markets remain unstable and drivers face rising costs at gas stations. Politico reported that senior White House staff and other officials are reviewing the economic impact of a long-lasting supply disruption. They are discussing options that might lessen the impact, including the potential use of additional emergency powers.
The report also indicated that President Donald Trump has been updated by Treasury officials on the near-term energy outlook. One source told Politico that the administration now sees oil prices above $100 a barrel as likely and is not ruling out even more drastic scenarios.
A White House spokesperson contested part of this view, stating that the administration was not discussing or predicting short-term oil prices reaching $200 a barrel. The spokesperson mentioned that officials are looking for ways to reduce supply disruptions and pointed out the high levels of domestic oil and gas production during Trump’s time in office.
Trump: We will be leaving very soon, and if France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they will go up through the hormuz strait and will be able to fend for themselves. But we have nothing to do with that. What happens in the strait—we aren’t going to have anything to… pic.twitter.com/JsYT6PMj0q
— Acyn (@Acyn) March 31, 2026
This internal planning comes as the national average price for gasoline has hit around $4 a gallon, which poses both economic and political risks for any administration. According to Politico, these discussions are mainly organized through the National Energy Dominance Council, which includes officials from the Defense, Energy, Commerce, State, and Interior departments.
The market pressure is largely linked to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key oil routes. About 20 percent of global oil and gas supply passes through this area each day, making any ongoing disruption a global concern, not just a regional one.
Politico reported that some industry officials connected to the White House believe the administration is in an “all hands on deck” situation as it looks for solutions to prevent a larger jump in energy prices. One industry official familiar with the talks told the outlet that officials are brainstorming every potential idea that might help lower prices, including measures related to national defense and supply chain disruptions.
Oil analyst Rory Johnston told Politico that the full impact of the conflict may just be starting to surface. He explained that cargoes already in transit when the war began have mostly reached their destinations. The next wave of shortages is expected to affect the United States in about two weeks, following impacts in Asia.
BREAKING: Brent crude oil surges above $115 per barrel. pic.twitter.com/gmvyvl3HWZ
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) March 29, 2026
Johnston noted that the U.S. is better situated than many countries because it is a significant oil and gas producer. However, he cautioned that consumers may still face higher costs for diesel, jet fuel, and transportation. “This is going to be really hard on consumers,” he said. “It will effectively act as a massive tax that will reduce disposable income, hitting poor households much harder.”
Former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore also told Politico that while $150 oil seems unlikely, it presents a “nightmare scenario.” He highlighted that officials are clearly focused on how rising energy costs could negatively affect the economy and the Republican Party.
For now, the administration is publicly maintaining a sense of confidence. However, behind the scenes, Politico reported that officials are gearing up for a much tougher energy situation if the conflict and shipping disruptions persist.
