President Donald Trump is closing out 2025 underwater with voters, but after sliding to some of his weakest poll numbers of the year in November, the polling picture has shifted in late December.
While it is not a comeback story, it is a change in direction, and Republicans heading into 2026 are watching every poll to see if the president can turn things around.
The 2026 midterms are creeping closer, and the GOP may be heading into a bloodbath in the swing states. Recent elections and surveys have made it clear that the economy and cost of living remain Trump’s Achilles heel. Yet in a primetime address on Dec. 17, Trump pinned the affordability squeeze on Democrats, a message his close allies have tried to steer him away from.
Another issue that has been a never-ending headache is the Justice Department’s rollout of the Epstein files. The department has been releasing records following the Dec. 19 deadline set by the Epstein Files Transparency Act, and a batch released Dec. 23 mentioned Trump numerous times.
The ties to Epstein have seemingly kept Trump up at night as he lashes out time and time again as the links keep getting bigger. Some have been dismissed as baseless rumors, while others straight up contradict claims about his relationship with the disgraced financier.
Per RealClearPolitics and The New York Times, Trump is running net negative, but with a small late-December rebound after last month’s drop. RealClearPolitics data shows Trump began the year in better shape, at one point on Jan. 27 sitting at 50.5 percent approve.
The flip came in March, and the slide accelerated around his first 100 days, when he hit 45.1 percent approval on April 29. The lowest point in the RealClearPolitics average came on Nov. 14, when approval fell to 42.3 percent. Disapproval climbed as well, reaching 55.6 percent on Nov. 21. As of Dec. 23, the RealClearPolitics average put him at 43% approve and 53.6% disapprove.
Trump is –34 with working-class Americans.
58% disapprove of his handling of jobs and the economy.
Under $50k: 61% say we’re on the wrong track.
$100k+: 60% feel pessimistic or unsure. pic.twitter.com/cIpCfC9cWm
— Craig Phelps (@Craig_Phelps) December 26, 2025
The New York Times aggregator tells a similar story with slightly different numbers. It shows Trump dropping from 52% approval in January to 44% in April, then staying mostly steady for months before hitting a term low of 41% on Nov. 12. His disapproval peaked at 56% on Nov. 19. As of Dec. 23, the Times average had him at 42% approve and 54% disapprove.
A Morning Consult poll taken Dec. 19 to 21 found Trump at 45% approval and 52% disapproval. It surveyed 2,203 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. The poll also found voters want Trump to focus on lowering prices, while fewer believe he is making that his priority.
In a two-week poll released by Gallup on Dec. 22, Trump’s approval for the last month of the year stood at 36%. The survey, conducted Dec. 1 to 15 among 1,016 U.S. adults, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. The topline number is anchored by intense partisan splits, 89% support among Republicans, 25% among independents, and 3% among Democrats. Gallup also notes that dissatisfaction is not limited to Trump, with Americans unhappy with congressional leaders on both sides and down on the country’s direction.
Gallup’s historical comparison shows Trump’s December approval in the first year of his terms, as both the 45th and 47th president, sits lower than any other modern president at the same point, with Biden at 43% in December 2021, Obama at 50% in December 2009, and George W. Bush at 86% in December 2001.
The surprising turn for Trump is far from a comeback story, but the polling is heading in the right direction heading into 2026. Historically, an unpopular president leads to the party in power getting wiped out in the midterms. So if Trump wants to hold Congress, he will need to address the cost-of-living crisis and stop blaming Biden.
