For political prediction market traders, Donald Trump’s State of the Union address has become the World Series and the Super Bowl all rolled into one — and this time, millions of dollars are already in play. More than $4 million has been wagered on Kalshi, betting on what President Trump is expected to say during his anticipated congressional address.
According to activity on the federally regulated exchange Kalshi. Traders are placing bets on specific words and themes, effectively turning Trump’s speech into a live financial event. Market forecasts currently show a 93 percent probability that Trump will say “250” as well as his often-used eight-letter favorite, “trillion.” Both references are tied to two pillars expected to dominate the address: the approaching 250th anniversary of the United States and the sweeping economic growth figures Trump frequently highlights in speeches.
BREAKING: 67% chance the Supreme Court orders a “tariff refund” this year
The US potentially faces $150+ billion in refunds pic.twitter.com/U1q1ZWnYnP
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) February 20, 2026
The strong confidence in “trillion” reflects expectations that Trump will once again emphasize large-scale economic metrics — from federal spending and trade balances to investment and growth totals. Likewise, “250” is widely interpreted as a nod to America’s upcoming semiquincentennial celebration, a milestone Trump has repeatedly referenced as a defining moment for the nation.
While economic and patriotic language appears likely, traders are far less certain Trump will venture into cryptocurrency territory. Contracts tied to “Bitcoin” and “Ethereum” rank among the least likely words he is expected to mention, signaling low market confidence that digital assets will feature prominently in the address.
Kalshi’s odds also provide a revealing snapshot of the issues dominating the current political climate. For example, traders assign an 88 percent chance that Trump will mention ICE, compared to just a 23 percent probability he will reference the Department of Government Efficiency. The contrast suggests that immigration enforcement is viewed as far more likely to take center stage than discussions about federal cost-cutting.
The imbalance highlights how prediction markets often mirror the broader national conversation. With border security and immigration frequently topping headlines, traders appear confident those topics will command more attention than bureaucratic reform initiatives.
Beyond word-based contracts, other Kalshi markets tied to Trump’s upcoming speech have also experienced a surge in activity. One of the most closely watched side markets involves whether Barron Trump will attend the address. With more than $3.3 million already wagered, traders currently place the odds of Barron being present at 58 percent — marking a sharp 19-point jump in just the past 24 hours. The rapid shift underscores how even attendance speculation can move significant sums of money.
Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. Online prediction sites Kalshi and Polymarket are fielding millions of dollars in wages on President Trump’s fourth State of the Union address, with bets covering everything from who he will attack to how long he will talk in the Tuesday… pic.twitter.com/oyk7ezCwu4
— Robbie Mouton (@mcgmouton57) February 21, 2026
Kalshi’s regulated structure distinguishes it from informal betting sites, offering Americans a legal, federally overseen way to trade on real-world outcomes. In this case, that includes everything from specific policy mentions to family appearances in the chamber.
As the speech approaches, trading volumes are expected to intensify. Every pre-speech hint, interview remark, or campaign signal has the potential to move the markets.
Trump’s rhetorical style — often anchored in sweeping economic comparisons, national milestones, and strong border messaging — provides traders with a rich archive of past speeches to analyze. Many participants study transcripts and previous State of the Union addresses in hopes of identifying patterns.
When Trump steps to the podium, millions will be watching from home. On Kalshi, millions more will already have money riding on what he says — and who shows up to hear it.
