Republicans are facing a series of special-election losses in early 2026. Party strategists say these outcomes suggest a turnout issue in areas that supported President Donald Trump by large margins in 2024, according to Axios.
Democrats have outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 results by an average of 10.5 percentage points across 20 state legislative special elections held so far this year, Axios reported.
These results have sparked internal debates within the GOP about whether Trump-aligned voters are missing off-cycle elections, which puts Republicans at risk even in areas where they usually do well. “While many in our party may want to dismiss these results,” a GOP operative told Axios, “the pattern shows there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it’s based on an energized Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base.”
The publication highlighted a key warning sign in a North Texas state Senate special election on January 31. Democrat Taylor Rehmet won by 14 points in a district that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.
A week later, on February 7, Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won a South Louisiana state House district by 24 points after Trump won that district by 13 points in 2024, Axios reported.
Republicans did score a win in Oklahoma on February 10, but Axios noted the margin also dropped significantly from Trump’s 2024 numbers. A Republican candidate won a north-central Oklahoma state House special election by 28 points after Trump won the district by 58 points in 2024, according to Axios.
In addition, Republicans have seen double-digit declines from Trump’s 2024 performance in state legislative races in Northern and Central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut since the beginning of the year.
Some Republican strategists connect this decline to Trump not being on the ballot this year or in 2028. Others point to specific controversies that might dampen enthusiasm among parts of his coalition. The outlet noted that some strategists have recognized that Trump’s actions, including the administration’s hesitation to release more records related to Jeffrey Epstein, have turned off some MAGA supporters while energizing Democrats and anti-GOP independents.
Meanwhile, Democrats have learned how to compete in Trump-heavy areas by focusing on local issues rather than nationalizing every race, Axios reported. Rehmet told Axios he concentrated on lowering costs and did not make Trump the main focus of his campaign. “Running against Trump wasn’t my campaign,” Rehmet said, adding that he believed he gained significant support from Trump voters.
Some Republicans cautioned against treating special elections as a reliable indicator for the presidential contests in November. Axios reported that party officials pointed out that Trump’s political operation did not actively mobilize supporters in the recent races and argued it will do so in House and Senate elections later this year. They also expect Trump to campaign more actively.
“Let’s not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake,” Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee said, continuing: “They are unique, low-turnout contests driven by highly localized factors.”
Still, these early results have heightened discussions within the GOP about whether the party can consistently mobilize Trump’s supporters when he is not personally on the ballot, and whether Democrats can continue to apply their special-election strategies in districts Republicans once considered safe.
