Trump administration officials are projecting that Americans could see the “largest tax refund season” in 2026, pointing to tax-code changes tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill and arguing that withholding levels have not yet caught up with the new rules.
Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri laid out the claim in an early December memo that cited an analysis by financial services firm Piper Sandler. Smith said 2026 is shaping up to be “the largest tax refund season,” driven by changes Congress and the administration put into place this year.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed that message in a recent interview with a Philadelphia NBC station, predicting that refunds could surge in the first quarter of 2026 because many workers did not adjust their withholding after the bill passed.
“The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent said. “I think we’re going to see $100 [billion]-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.”
Bessent added that once withholding levels adjust, workers could see higher take-home pay instead of a larger refund at filing time.
While many provisions are set to take effect in 2026, impacting the tax returns filed the following year, there are also changes that apply to 2025 taxes, meaning they could show up for filers earlier than 2026, depending on the specific provision and the taxpayer’s situation.
Among the changes cited by administration allies and coverage of the bill are a higher standard deduction, a higher cap on state and local tax deductions, an additional $6,000 deduction for seniors, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on car loan interest, among other adjustments.
.@POTUS: “Next year, you will also see the results of the largest tax cuts in American history… many families will be saving between $11,000 and $20,000 dollars a year, and next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time.” pic.twitter.com/MdzWRy3YMw
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) December 18, 2025
Adam Brewer, a tax attorney with AB Tax Law, told Nexstar that refunds are expected to rise for many taxpayers, but he emphasized that outcomes will vary.
“Because of the changes within the Big Beautiful Bill, most taxpayers should expect to see a larger refund in 2025, but how much they receive will really depend on the specifics of their tax situation,” Brewer said, per The Hill.
Brewer also flagged that the tax changes do not apply evenly across all workers.
“The administration and Congress picked winners and losers. As a result, not all income is taxed equally,” Brewer said. “If your income is based largely on overtime or tips, then you could be paying much less income tax than your co-worker who is a salaried employee, even if you earn roughly the same amount.”
Administration officials have pointed to the prospect of bigger refunds as an immediate, tangible outcome that many taxpayers will notice. But tax professionals note that a refund is not the same thing as an increase in income.
A larger refund can simply mean that more money was withheld from paychecks during the year than was ultimately owed, and the IRS is returning the overpayment after the tax return is filed. In that scenario, the taxpayer is getting their own money back, rather than receiving a new benefit on top of earnings.
That distinction is also why Bessent said the picture could change once employers and payroll processors adjust withholding tables more fully. If withholding decreases, workers may see more money in each paycheck, while refunds could shrink because less was over-withheld in the first place.
Even with rosy refund projections from the administration, analysts have also cautioned that the bill’s benefits may not be evenly distributed.
Multiple nonpartisan analyses of the legislation have concluded that the bill’s biggest gains skew toward higher earners and businesses. A Congressional Budget Office analysis found that those in the top 10 percent would see an additional $12,000, while those in the poorest 10 percent would lose $1,600 annually, alongside reductions tied to Medicaid and food assistance.
Brewer urged caution for filers trying to plan around the refund headlines.
“What I am telling my clients is that if they receive a larger refund than prior years then it will be a pleasant surprise, but don’t spend in anticipation of a large refund just yet,” he said.
