When even Donald Trump’s favorite pollster starts waving the red flag, Republicans know the warning is real.
John McLaughlin, one of Trump’s most trusted pollsters from the 2024 campaign, is now openly cautioning that the political trend heading into the 2026 midterms is slipping out of the GOP’s hands. In a new survey from McLaughlin and Associates, he and his brother, Jim McLaughlin, reveal that Republicans are losing support among the very voters they must hold to keep their congressional majorities intact.
In a Newsmax column explaining the findings, the McLaughlins write that there is an “increasingly challenging landscape for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.” Coming from pollsters who occupy prime real estate inside Trump world, this is not a casual observation.
Their latest poll of 1,000 Americans shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 45 percent to 44 percent, a narrow edge. The McLaughlin Poll marks the first time since the 2024 election that Democrats have led in their surveys. The McLaughlins now join every single pollster tracked by NYT in predicting Democrats will regain control of Congress in next year’s midterms.
Republicans are not just falling behind, they are falling behind everywhere that matters. According to the McLaughlin survey, Democrats now lead among independents 42 percent to 26 percent, among Hispanics 48 percent to 36 percent, among suburban voters 46 percent to 43 percent, and among women 50 percent to 38 percent. These are not fringe constituencies, these are the voters who decide who controls Washington.
New Marist poll: generic ballot
Democrats 55%
Republicans 41%
“This is the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had a notable advantage on the congressional generic ballot question.” It was 48-48% in 2024.https://t.co/ASdmaA7U4r pic.twitter.com/78qeFqTAV7
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) November 19, 2025
After Democrats swept the first major elections of second Trump term earlier this month, the recent polling will GOP strategists into panic mode. Independents break ties, and Suburban voters have swung multiple cycles in a row. Hispanic voters are a growing force in battleground states. Women turn out at some of the highest rates in the electorate. If Democrats hold even a portion of these margins heading into 2026, Republicans will be fighting uphill in both chambers of Congress.
The McLaughlins stop short of calling it a crisis, but they do not bother to sugarcoat it. They point out that GOP messaging is faltering and that the party is risking its most crucial coalitions. For a pollster who has become synonymous with Trump, acknowledging a “challenging landscape” the GOP are in deep trouble.
This new polling drop arrives on top of a string of rough surveys for Republicans, many showing voters drifting away on issues like abortion, democracy, and basic governance. Instead of coasting on their 2024 momentum, the party appears to be losing altitude with swing voters who once leaned their way.
For Democrats, this is the kind of data that encourages fundraising efforts and renewed optimism. For Republicans, it is a reminder that pure loyalty to Trump and a steady stream of cultural war talking points may not be enough to keep Congress.
Democrats are currently on track to take back Congress. The question is whether Republicans treat that as a wake up call, or just another warning sign they choose to ignore.
