Donald Trump opened 2026 with a small but noticeable lift in his approval rating, according to national polling averages tracked by The New York Times. It is not a surge. It is not a breakthrough. But after weeks of stagnation, the numbers moved in his favor.The Times’ polling average shows Trump’s approval inching up by roughly one point in the first days of January, a shift that stands out mainly because it breaks a flat stretch that followed December’s government shutdown and renewed attention on the Epstein files controversy. The movement is modest, but real.
What the uptick does not reflect is a sudden embrace of Trump’s recent actions. Over the past several weeks, the president has faced criticism across multiple fronts — from foreign policy tensions to domestic crackdowns, with little evidence of broad public enthusiasm for those moves.
Instead, the change appears to be about timing and alignment.
The Arizona Republic reports that Trump’s approval has remained narrowly polarized, with voters largely responding along partisan lines as the calendar turned. Support among Republicans has firmed up, while Democratic disapproval has held steady. Independents, meanwhile, remain split and volatile.
Trafalgar Poll approval rating of President Trump released on Dec 27 pic.twitter.com/uMNCc3TZpF
— Akbar Shebazz Jenkins (@MedicalClinic10) January 3, 2026
That pattern matters. When Republican support consolidates (even slightly) Trump’s national numbers tend to rise, regardless of whether the news cycle is favorable. Early January has historically provided that opening, as voters step back from late-year political fatigue and reassess rather than react.
The Arizona Republic notes that Trump entered the new year amid a long list of unresolved issues, including ongoing foreign conflicts, domestic investigations tied to federal programs, and lingering fallout from December’s shutdown. None of those have meaningfully improved. But they also have not worsened in recent days.
Polling experts have long observed that approval ratings often stabilize, or even tick upward, at the start of a new year, especially when voters are not responding to a single dominant crisis. That appears to be the case here.
— Jardin (@lafleurjardin4) January 3, 2026
There is also the reality of political sorting. As Trump approaches the first anniversary of his second term, opinions about him are increasingly locked in. Soft supporters drift back. Strong opponents stay put. The middle narrows.
Gallup’s historical data offers context. In early 2017, Trump experienced similar fluctuations during the opening months of his first term, with approval ratings moving within a tight band despite a barrage of executive actions and constant controversy. The shifts then, as now, reflected partisan recalibration more than persuasion.
The comparison is not perfect. Trump’s political environment in 2026 is more polarized, and his floor of support is firmer than it was nearly a decade ago. But the pattern, small rises without broad approval, is familiar.
Trump's current approval rating in his own country is 36%.
Now he wants to run a second country?
I do not see that going well. pic.twitter.com/7RVKGQMQ5I
— Jason Ackery 3rd (@JasonAckery3rd) January 3, 2026
The New York Times polling average underscores that point. Even with the recent bump, Trump’s approval remains underwater nationally. Disapproval continues to outpace approval by several points, and there is no evidence yet of sustained momentum.
For now, the uptick says less about what Trump has done than about how voters are feeling: calmer, briefly less reactive, and predictably partisan as a new year begins.
Whether that mood holds is an open question. But for the moment, the numbers moved. And in today’s political climate, even a small shift is news.
