White House trade adviser Peter Navarro urged Americans and investors to view weak job growth as a positive outcome of President Donald Trump’s immigration policies. He argued that deportations suggest the U.S. should expect smaller monthly payroll increases in the future.
“We need to lower our expectations for what a monthly job number should look like,” Navarro told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Tuesday, according to the interview accounts. He mentioned that during the Biden administration, “we were letting in 2 million illegal aliens,” meaning “we had to produce 200,000 jobs a month for steady state.” Under Trump, Navarro claimed the target should be closer to 50,000 jobs a month since he said the administration is removing “millions” of undocumented immigrants.
Bartiromo questioned Navarro about whether he was preparing viewers for a weak report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “It sounds like you’re expecting a weak number tomorrow?” she asked, according to Mediaite. Navarro responded that he was not “expecting a weak number,” but he added that “when we see a number under 100,000, we don’t wring our hands,” describing that as “steady state.”
These comments came before the BLS “Employment Situation” report set to be released Wednesday morning, Feb. 11, which would cover January hiring. Economists tracked by Investopedia forecasted a modest gain of about 55,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate around 4.4%. They also warned that the report might include significant revisions that could reduce previously reported job growth.
Navarro’s argument also pointed to the idea that the administration’s deportation efforts have already taken “millions” of workers out of the labor market. However, public enforcement data shows a much smaller number of arrests. An internal Department of Homeland Security document obtained by CBS News indicated that ICE made around 392,619 arrests between Jan. 21, 2025, and Jan. 31, 2026. This dataset revealed that fewer than 14% of those arrests involved individuals charged or convicted of violent offenses, while 42% involved individuals with no prior criminal history, CBS reported.
Navarro’s comments came during a time of increased concern about slowing job growth. The Daily Beast, referencing CNN’s reporting and recent economic data, noted that the U.S. has averaged about 49,000 jobs added per month since Trump returned to office, compared to approximately 168,000 per month during the prior administration.
Economists generally warn against linking any single monthly payroll number to one policy choice because hiring reflects a combination of consumer demand, business investment, interest rates, labor supply, and global factors. Investopedia highlighted that economists are watching not just the overall payroll gains but also revisions, labor force trends, and indicators like job openings, which have recently softened.
The White House has stated its focus on inflation, growth, and border enforcement. Navarro’s framing sought to encourage Wall Street and the public to see weaker job creation as proof that fewer workers are entering the labor market through unauthorized immigration. “So, Wall Street, when this news comes out, they can’t rain on that parade,” he said, adding that investors “have to accept the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals out of our job market,” according to Mediaite’s account.
Whether markets buy this explanation may depend on the specifics of Wednesday’s report, including wage growth, hours worked, unemployment, and any adjustments to previous months.
