Democratic strategists say a rise in primary turnout across several states is giving the party renewed hope for the 2026 midterms. Some attribute the increase to voter anger at President Donald Trump and Republican control in Washington.
A recent sign came from Illinois, where the Democratic Senate primary attracted around 1.28 million voters, up from about 860,000 in the state’s 2022 midterm primary, according to NOTUS. Turnout also surged in House contests, with Illinois’ 8th Congressional District increasing 63% from 2022 and the 9th District jumping 71%.
“I think there’s a strong likelihood of a rage turnout this year,” said Democratic strategist Aviva Bowen, who worked on contested House primaries in Illinois.
The turnout gains in Illinois follow similar increases in other Democratic primaries this year. NOTUS reported that North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary welcomed about 827,000 voters, a 34% increase from 2022, even though former Gov. Roy Cooper effectively ran unopposed for the nomination.
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Voter turnout in state elections over the last 14 months has Republicans concerned as the midterms approach (Politico) pic.twitter.com/Lg7kQ9ewTf
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 12, 2026
Democratic primary turnout climbed to about 90% in Mississippi compared to 2024, while Texas saw about 2.3 million Dem voters, which is a 137% increase from 2024, per the report.
Democratic operatives told NOTUS they view the trend as a sign that voters who may have skipped past contests are getting involved again. “Nobody shows up to a parade for losers,” Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki said. “And the enthusiasm we’re seeing in Dem primaries compared to the lack of enthusiasm in Republican primaries is a pretty strong signal.”
Still, strategists and analysts interviewed by NOTUS noted that the primary numbers do not guarantee success in November. Midterm turnout patterns can differ significantly from general election turnout. Many of the party’s toughest races are in Republican-leaning areas where Democrats will need support beyond their core base.
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— The Hill (@thehill) March 13, 2026
Bowen cautioned that Illinois does not perfectly reflect the national trend. She told NOTUS that turnout in Chicago increased from 2022 but remained well below 2018, the last midterm cycle when Trump was in the White House and Democrats regained the House. “This isn’t Texas,” Bowen said.
Republicans and GOP-aligned strategists are countering the Democratic narrative. Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told NOTUS that part of the spike may come from competitive Democratic candidates rather than an influx of new general-election voters.
He said many of the people voting in the primaries are already reliable Democratic voters in November. “It feels more like they are moving around deck chairs rather than adding new ones,” Buchanan said.
He added that low Republican primary participation may not indicate weakness in the fall. “The stories being written suggest this is the tombstone of the Republican Party, just because some Democrats decided to show up in their own primary,” Buchanan told NOTUS.
Nevertheless, Democratic committees see the turnout increases as a positive sign. Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told NOTUS that recent results show voters are “fired up” and ready to help Democrats contest for a House majority.
For now, party strategists are observing whether the primary energy continues through November. After turnout spikes in state after state, Democrats believe the trend is becoming harder to ignore as a one-off.
