Russia could gain an extra $10 billion for its war efforts after the Trump administration temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil shipments, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and energy analysts.
The waiver, issued by the U.S. Treasury on March 12, permits the delivery and sale of Russian oil and petroleum products that were already on vessels as of that date.
Zelenskyy stated on Friday that the U.S. decision would empower Moscow at a time when Russia is still invading Ukraine.
Speaking in Paris next to French President Emmanuel Macron, Zelenskyy noted that the easing “could provide Russia with about $10 billion for the war” and claimed that money from energy sales ultimately funds weapons used against Ukraine. Reuters also reported that Isaac Levi from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated the windfall could reach $10 billion per month.
The Treasury waiver followed a significant increase in global oil prices after the Iran war disrupted energy markets and limited tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration indicated that the 30-day measure aimed to stabilize supply by allowing buyers to take Russian oil already at sea without facing U.S. sanctions.
BRENNAN: The US is temporarily suspending some sanctions on Russia to make Russian oil available. But doesn’t Russia still financially benefit from that? Why isn’t the US seizing those tankers?
CHRIS WRIGHT: Because right now we’re worried about Iran and we’re worried about… pic.twitter.com/0IvCn2ZK38
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 8, 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the measure as narrow and temporary, arguing it would not generate substantial new revenue for the Russian government since the oil had already been taxed when it was extracted.
Analysts and U.S. allies disagreed with this view, saying the waiver could still benefit Moscow by making Russian cargoes easier to sell, reducing the discount on Russian oil and improving cash flow amid rising prices.
AP reported that Brent crude rose above $103 a barrel on Friday, up sharply from $72.87 on February 27, the day before the Iran war began. That same report indicated that Russian oil was trading above $80 a barrel, enhancing the Kremlin’s position as Asian buyers seek replacement supplies.
AP also reported that analysts estimate around 125 million barrels of Russian oil are currently at sea, which is roughly five or six days’ worth of normal shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to CREA data cited by AP, Russia’s daily revenue from oil sales during the Iran war has been about 14% higher than in February, with Moscow earning around 510 million euros, or $588 million, each day this month from oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
The biggest winner of the war in Iran? Vladimir Putin.
Even as Russia gives Iran intel to target US forces, Trump is relaxing sanctions against Russian oil, putting more money in Putin’s pocket.
This war is a gift to our adversaries.https://t.co/kI1uwNSuGu pic.twitter.com/3UD8xXdevD
— Senator Chris Van Hollen (@ChrisVanHollen) March 14, 2026
Macron emphasized that the U.S. action was temporary and did not represent a complete rollback of sanctions on Russia.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took a firmer stance, saying that six G7 members had made it clear to Trump that easing the sanctions sent the wrong message. Britain also stated that allies should keep applying pressure on Russia and noted that Western sanctions have already cost the Russian state more than $450 billion since the war in Ukraine began.
The Kremlin welcomed the decision. Reuters quoted spokesman Dmitry Peskov as stating that Washington and Moscow share an interest in stabilizing energy markets and that such stabilization is impossible without significant volumes of Russian oil.
For Russia, the waiver provides relief at a time when oil and gas are one of the Kremlin’s key sources of budget revenue.
For several U.S. allies, it is a move that could reduce market pressure while allowing Moscow to profit from a war that is now in its fifth year. However, for Ukraine, it means their enemy will have more revenue to fund the ongoing conflict that has taken thousands of lives on both sides.
