As concerns about President Donald Trump’s health continue to mount, Vice President JD Vance — who remains the favorite to replace Trump following the 2028 election — is gaining momentum among potential voters.
More than 1,000 registered voters participated in an NBC poll, initially released on March 8. The results began to gain traction on social media on Wednesday. Vance’s numbers especially turned heads.
Although 49% of voters overall feel negatively about Vance, he has an overall approval rating of 38%. Only Trump’s 41% approval rating is higher among the six politicians mentioned in the poll; voters were also asked to share their feelings on Secretary of State Marco Rubio, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
All but Trump have been suggested as possible candidates for the 2028 election. Trump has publicly hinted he’d be interested in running for office again. However, the Constitution prevents him from serving a third term.
NBC shows AI with worse poll numbers than ICE https://t.co/gvatu6b5HC pic.twitter.com/RnMB5McvnJ
— Nick Field (@nick_field90) March 8, 2026
Trump, who turns 80 later this year, has faced questions about his physical and mental health in recent months. He has gone viral for photos showing bruises on his hands and a recent rash on his neck. Videos have shown him looking tired or dozing during meetings.
Vance would immediately replace Trump if the latter stepped down for medical reasons. However, there is no indication that Trump intends to leave office anytime soon, nor have there been any credible reports that he is considering such a decision.
No vice president has moved into office during a presidency since Gerald Ford took over for Richard Nixon after Nixon resigned in 1974. Joe Biden chose not to run for re-election in 2024, but he completed his term before Trump took over in January 2025.
Of the 15 vice presidents who eventually became president, only six won a presidential election without first inheriting the office through a death or resignation.
President Trump was seen with what appeared to be a rash on his neck during Monday’s Medal of Honor ceremony.
CBS News obtained a statement from Dr. Sean Barbabella, physician to the President of the United States, who said Mr. Trump was using a “very common cream on the right… pic.twitter.com/TDuIqS4sFG
— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 2, 2026
“Vice presidents are pretty successful at gaining their party’s nomination for president,” John McGlennon, a professor at William & Mary University in Virginia, told History in 2025. “But they’re less successful at actually winning elections.”
Vance remains the favorite to earn the Republican nomination, with Polymarket giving him 38% odds as of March 11. Rubio’s chances have skyrocketed in recent weeks, and his odds sit at 26% as of Wednesday afternoon. Rubio had only a 12.3% chance to win the nomination on Feb. 23. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ranks third at 3%.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the overwhelming favorite to earn the Democratic nomination at 25% on Polymarket. Newsom had the least favourable ratings in the NBC poll, with only 27% of registered voters viewing him positively. His -18 difference in approval rating ranked worst among the six politicians and the fifth-lowest among the 14 topics discussed.
No politicians from either major party have confirmed a potential 2028 run.
