For months, Vice President JD Vance looked like he had the 2028 Republican nomination in the bag, the obvious next-in-line to carry the party’s banner. But new polling hints that his once unstoppable momentum is starting to fade, and the challenger gaining ground is a familiar name, Donald Trump Jr.
Data from McLaughlin & Associates show Vance’s commanding lead slipping in a hypothetical GOP primary that includes Trump Jr. and other potential contenders, and the concern isn’t one single poll; it’s the trend.
Back in August, Vance topped the field with 36 percent support, comfortably ahead of Trump Jr.’s 16 percent, a 20-point lead. By September, he was doing even better, widening the gap to 28 points.
Then momentum started to shift in October, Vance still led but Trump Jr. began closing in, 38 percent to 20 percent, narrowing the margin to 18 points, still big but no longer overwhelming. This month, the gap shrank again, and the latest survey, taken November 17–24, shows Vance at 34 percent and Trump Jr. at 24 percent, just a 10-point cushion among 439 Republican voters polled.
Ten points is still a lead, but the VP is heading in the wrong direction as time goes by.
JD Vance’s favorability rating has dipped below 40%.
Net favorability: 🔻 -7.6
3-month change: 🔻 -2.1 pic.twitter.com/vpRU7AJcnB
— VoteHub (@VoteHub) November 26, 2025
Complicating things further, his boss is struggling in the polls. A recent Economist/YouGov survey put President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 39 percent, the lowest since he returned to office, and 58 percent disapprove, leaving him underwater by 19 points.
That slump is now spilling over onto his vice president.
Mark Shanahan, a political analyst at the University of Surrey, told Newsweek the reason is simple: polls this far out don’t mean much, but Vance’s problem is that he’s so closely tied to this administration, and his job is to back the president, so if Trump’s numbers sink, Vance’s go with them.
VP JD Vance: “Be honest with yourself, who really likes turkey? You’re all full of sh*t. Everybody who raised your hands… Turkey doesn’t actually taste that good… Chicken is good all the time.”
Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/G6zBolqAB8
— AF Post (@AFpost) November 26, 2025
In other words, Vance is being judged as an extension of Trump, and if voters are frustrated with the economy or rising costs, they’re unlikely to see his vice president as a fresh alternative.
Trump Jr., on the other hand, doesn’t share the burden of governing, and he carries his father’s name, appeals to the same voter base, and remains a constant reminder that the MAGA movement could still rally behind someone even closer to the original brand.
It’s still early, no one has officially declared, and 2028 is a long way off. But the newest data undercuts the idea that JD Vance is coasting toward the nomination, his lead is smaller, his ties to a faltering president are tighter, and the GOP landscape looks a little less certain than it did just a few months ago.
There are several plausible reasons Vance’s numbers may be sliding. As Trump’s approval has fallen and his presidency has grown more controversial, some voters are beginning to see Vance less as his own figure and more as an extension of an unpopular administration, which drags down enthusiasm for him as a future nominee.
