House Speaker Mike Johnson may feel like he won a procedural battle, but that doesn’t mean he has a real political victory, as the next chapter already presents several challenges.
Johnson gained approval when a group of Democrats broke away from their party to help avoid a government shutdown. However, problems like a slim majority, an uneasy Republican caucus, and important votes ahead suggest this win might easily unravel.
A major example is the upcoming debate over the Jeffrey Epstein files. Congress faces public pressure to release thousands of pages of documents and even hold hearings. Johnson finds himself in the middle of this issue. While a Republican-led House committee has released more than 33,000 pages of Epstein-related files, critics say many of these are already public and reveal nothing new.
As Johnson brings the House back into session, he has a caucus with varying opinions. Moderates from Biden-won districts worry about economic issues in their areas. Meanwhile, hard-liners are pushing for stricter spending cuts and more ideological loyalty.
On MSNBC, former Republican congressman and host Joe Scarborough did not hold back. He suggested that Johnson is on unstable ground. “They’re lying to their own supporters, they’re lying to their own constituents, they’re lying to their own followers,” he said, referring to the shutdown messaging.
In the most predictable development ever, Mike Johnson is not committing to hold a House vote on ACA subsidies pic.twitter.com/5vmarKed5i
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 10, 2025
He added, “This time it’s the Speaker of the House, Mr. ‘I’m ruled by the Bible,’ spreading an unambiguous lie,” calling it “not a winning formula.” Such public criticism from a former GOP member suggests Johnson has deeper issues. Even within his party, his support may be fading due to a series of missteps.
The reality is clear for Johnson; while he may technically hold the gavel, he has no safety net. He lacks a “massive majority,” as Scarborough said, and a few Republicans from Biden-won districts could change the power balance. Scarborough warned, “Things can go sideways pretty fast.”
What does all of this mean for Johnson? The shutdown truce seems less like a conclusion to a fight and more like the beginning of a new chapter filled with risks. If he can’t unify his caucus around a clear agenda, or if the Epstein files issue causes defections, the House could quickly descend into chaos.
For the GOP overall, this is significant not only procedurally but politically. With the 2026 midterm elections a year away, changes in voting patterns in areas that supported Biden could shift everything. The Epstein situation, combined with economic worries in swing districts, threatens to damage the message Republicans need to secure those seats.
In summary, Johnson’s win is fragile, and while he has a chance to get the House moving again, he faces several weaknesses. If the House votes on the Epstein issue, or if policy missteps happen in districts where constituents feel the pressure, today’s applause could quickly turn into tomorrow’s anxiety.
