A veteran Republican pollster warned President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans that his declining approval ratings could lead to significant losses in the midterms. He pointed to historical patterns linking a president’s standing to the number of seats his party loses in November.
Whit Ayres, a longtime GOP strategist, told Politico that Trump is experiencing the lowest point of his second term. He noted voters are responding to what they see as chaos in Washington. “There’s a sense that this is a pretty chaotic administration, and it reminds people of the pandemic period in the first term,” Ayres said.
Ayres made these remarks as Trump’s approval rating dropped to 40% in The New York Times daily polling average, while disapproval rose to 56%, according to reports citing the Times tracker. This was described as Trump’s lowest approval level of the second term so far.
Ayres mentioned that approval ratings often predict midterm results. He told Politico that when a president’s job approval is above 50%, his party typically loses seats but fewer compared to when approval falls below 50%. He noted that the average loss in such cases rises to 32 seats.
This warning is significant with control of Congress at stake in the 2026 midterms. All 435 House seats and a third of the Senate will be up for election. Republicans, currently in control of the White House and majorities in Congress, are vulnerable to the usual backlash that affects the party in power during midterms.
Harry Enten, new lows on Trump’s approval ratings.
AP, -26 points. NBC, -22. Yahoo/YouGov, -20 points, Quinnipiac -19 points.
5 points below his first-term score. -9 points compared to Joe Biden. pic.twitter.com/RQ4jFkxFpq
— Blue Georgia (@BlueATLGeorgia) February 16, 2026
Recent public polling shows weak numbers for Trump in several areas that previously fueled his 2024 campaign. Reuters and Ipsos reported in late January that 53% disapproved of Trump’s handling of immigration, while only 39% approved. In another recent survey, YouGov found that majorities rated Trump’s first presidency as “poor” or “below average,” although that poll focused on grading presidencies rather than assessing current performance.
Ayres also referenced 2020 as a reminder that voter fatigue can be decisive. “Joe Biden’s fundamental message in 2020 was to restore normalcy,” he said. “That seemed persuasive enough to get him elected.”
Trump has publicly dismissed negative polling in recent weeks. He criticized media outlets and pollsters that report unfavorably about him, according to multiple reports.
Ayres’ warning reflects a wider concern among Republican strategists about how independents perceive Trump’s second-term agenda and daily actions. Several polling summaries have shown independents distancing themselves from the president on immigration enforcement and other priorities, posing a risk for House Republicans in swing districts.
Republican leaders have mostly supported Trump as he pushes aggressive policies on immigration and the federal workforce. Democrats have used these issues to argue that Republicans are out of touch with public opinion, framing the midterms as a check on the administration.
For Republicans, the pressing question is whether Trump can regain public support before campaigning picks up and whether GOP candidates can localize their races in competitive districts. Ayres’ warning, delivered as Trump’s numbers fell, indicated that the party may not have much time to change the current trend.
