On the fifth anniversary of the January 6th Capitol riot, Donald Trump stood before House Republicans with a stark warning: win the 2026 midterms, or he will be impeached.
The president’s desperation was palpable, his fear of a Democratic-controlled Congress nakedly on display as he grimaced and flatly declared, “You gotta win the midterms. Because if we don’t win the midterms, it’s just going to be—I mean, they’ll find a reason to impeach me.”
It was a remarkably candid admission from a man who has survived two impeachments already. But timing made it especially significant.
Hours before Trump addressed the House GOP caucus on Tuesday, longtime California Representative Doug LaMalfa died unexpectedly at age 65, dealing Speaker Mike Johnson‘s already razor-thin majority another devastating blow. With each passing week, Republicans lose ground in the House, and Trump’s grip on Congress grows more tenuous.
Trump: “You gotta win the midterms. Because if we don’t win the midterms, they’ll find a reason to impeach me. I’ll get impeached.” pic.twitter.com/89NvspoP99
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 6, 2026
The president’s fear is not without foundation. His job approval rating is deteriorating, polling shows the majority of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, and his second term has been marked by military adventurism abroad and constitutional chaos at home.
A Democratic Congress would have every incentive to investigate his actions—and potentially the votes to impeach him.
What made Trump’s warning even more urgent was the simultaneous release of Jack Smith’s deposition testimony, which Republican lawmakers quietly dumped on New Year’s Eve 2025, seemingly hoping to bury it.
The former special counsel’s closed-door testimony to the House Judiciary Committee, released only after Smith’s request for public testimony was denied by Republican Chairman Jim Jordan, contained damaging statements about Trump’s culpability in both the classified documents case and January 6th.
Smith, the prosecutor who investigated Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his possession of missing classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, was unequivocal in his assessment.
“The basis for those charges rests entirely with President Trump and his actions,” he testified under oath.
But the most damaging statement came when Smith addressed Trump’s direct responsibility for the Capitol riot: “The evidence here made clear that President Trump was by a large measure the most culpable and most responsible person in this conspiracy. These crimes were committed for his benefit. The attack that happened at the Capitol, part of this case, does not happen without him.”
Trump fears impeachment will follow GOP midterm losses https://t.co/dBmpNPcJUF
— Axios (@axios) January 6, 2026
Smith continued: “The other co-conspirators were doing this for his benefit. So in terms of why we would pursue a case against him, I entirely disagree with any characterization that our work was in any way meant to hamper him in the presidential election.”
Smith’s testimony directly contradicted Trump’s repeated claims that the indictments were politically motivated. The prosecutor systematically dismantled that narrative, explaining that his team “developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt” that Trump broke the law by refusing to hand over classified documents discovered stashed at Mar-a-Lago and by obstructing efforts to retrieve them.
This was the backdrop for Trump’s pleading with House Republicans. He wasn’t just asking them to win an election.
He was asking them to protect him from the consequences of his own actions, as documented by a career prosecutor with no political axe to grind.
What’s striking about Trump’s warning is how it reveals the fundamental instability of his second term. Rather than governing with confidence, he’s governing with fear—fear of Congress, fear of investigations, fear of accountability.
The man who campaigned on strength and dominance is now begging his party to hold the line or face his impeachment.
The irony is sharp: Trump survived two impeachments in his first term because Republicans controlled the Senate and refused to convict.
Now, with Democrats potentially poised to take the House, Trump faces the prospect of impeachment without the protection he had before. His only defense is political—winning elections to maintain Republican control.
On the anniversary of January 6th, as Jack Smith’s testimony detailed Trump’s central role in that day’s violence, the president was reduced to pleading with his party.
It was a moment of extraordinary vulnerability for a man who built his political brand on appearing invulnerable.
