President Donald Trump gives Republicans a reality check with the tough historical odds in the 2026 midterm elections. He told Fox News that sitting presidents “always lose the midterm, even if they’ve done well.” His comments seemed to lower expectations, even as he hopes for a victory.
Trump made these remarks during an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity. Hannity pointed out that the party in power rarely keeps control of Congress during midterm elections. “This is a midterm election year. Three times in the last hundred years, the party in power was able to maintain control. Four times in the last 150 years,” he noted. “So historical trends are not with you.”
“If you go back a long way, the sitting president, whether it’s Democrat or Republican, always loses the midterm, even if they’ve done well. Almost always,” Trump replied. He mentioned that voters often turn against the White House even after successful first years. “You’d think when you have a victory and then on top of the victory you have a great, successful presidency, it would be an automatic win, but it’s never been a win. I mean, almost never been.”
Trump believes psychological factors influence midterm outcomes, though he said he could not fully explain why. “There’s something down, deep psychologically with the voters,” he remarked. “Nobody’s been able to define why.”
The president argued that his administration’s record should help Republicans buck history. “We’ve done maybe the best job ever in the first year,” Trump said, pointing to recent tax cuts and other economic measures. He referenced legislation he called a “Great Big Beautiful Bill,” which includes tax changes affecting tips, Social Security, overtime pay, and car purchases.
“We have so many things and we’re respected all over the world again like we’ve never been respected before,” Trump added.
Trump: If you go back a long way, the sitting president, whether Democrat or Republican, always loses the midterm. There is something down deep psychologically with the voters that they want maybe a check or something, pic.twitter.com/rNxPRkt916
— Acyn (@Acyn) January 9, 2026
These remarks contrasted with Trump’s message earlier in the week, when he predicted Republicans would overcome historical odds and achieve an “epic midterm victory.” However, some Republican allies have expressed concern about the party’s position as they head into 2026.
Rep. Nancy Mace warned Wednesday that Republicans had not “done enough” to protect their House majority. With the narrow margin in the House, even small shifts in competitive districts could determine control.
Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove, who was deputy chief of staff in the George W. Bush White House, raised similar alarms last month. Rove stated the Trump administration was “making mistakes that could result in a nasty 2026 midterm defeat,” according to his comments at a political forum.
Concerns about the midterms have also come up on Fox News, a network closely aligned with Trump and his supporters. Hosts Laura Ingraham and Jesse Watters have suggested in recent episodes that House Republicans could face significant losses in 2026.
Historically, presidents from both parties have seen their congressional majorities decline during midterm elections due to turnout dynamics, voter dissatisfaction, and backlash against the party in power. Trump acknowledged this during the interview while expressing hope that his administration could change the trend.
“Hopefully we’re gonna change that,” Trump said, returning to his list of legislative accomplishments. Whether Republicans can defy history will become clearer as campaigns develop and voters assess the administration’s record over the next year. What the president didn’t mention is how the cost-of-living is a major factor in the polls, hurting the GOP’s chances in the midterms.
