Data Scientist Who Correctly Called the 2020 Result Predicts a Landslide Victory in Trump-Harris Race

Following the success of the September 10 presidential debate, Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a decisive lead in the race against former President Donald Trump. A renowned data scientist has also argued that Trump's dreams of winning back the White House will be shattered come November. The 2024 presidential winner has been predicted by Northwestern University's Thomas Miller, who had correctly forecasted the results of the 2020 election. According to Miller, who spoke with Fortune Magazine, Harris will easily defeat Trump to become the first woman president of the United States. "It's gone from a drastic landslide in Trump's direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," he opined. 

“Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” the data scientist explained while backing his prediction. On the other hand, he argued, “Polls are a snapshot of the recent past. They typically canvas small samples of 500 to 1,500 people...and the pollsters [ask] respondents whom they’re planning to vote for at that moment, which may change a few days later when the results are posted. Most polls [therefore] are around four or five days behind.”

He claimed that this latency obscures the true image by producing a lot of noise or unpredictability. Another issue with polls, according to Miller, is that "Which candidate do you expect to win?" is a better question to ask than "Tell us which candidate you'll vote for." Miller assured that the PredictIt site is accurate for predicting the 2024 presidential election. In contrast to the populations chosen by pollsters, he commends the website for "having a more stable group of investors."

“You have tens of thousands of people betting on the site at all times of the day,” he stated. “The maximum contract is $850, and 37,000 ‘shares’ are traded on average every day.” Miller hence sees PredictIt as a massively liquid market that attracts a large number of buyers and sellers, much like an exchange for small-cap stocks or high-yield bonds. “Financial markets are forward-looking and incorporate information instantaneously, and PredictIt provides the same benefits,” he argued.   

Harris would have a sizable lead in the Electoral College as of September, according to Miller's estimate, with 55% of the popular vote. According to the Daily Mail, his forecast coincided with the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, which indicated that Harris is leading in significant swing states. As per the survey, Harris leads by six points in Pennsylvania (51 percent to 45 percent). The state is predicted to be a decisive one in the upcoming election in November. Additionally, in Wisconsin, she leads by a slim margin, receiving 48% of the vote as opposed to 47% while in Michigan, she has a 5-point lead.