New data from Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, NBC News/SurveyMonkey, Quinnipiac University, and Yahoo News/YouGov show that Donald Trump is underwater, politically speaking. He is between 19 to 26 points beneath the surface.
Harry Enten, CNN‘s chief data analyst, says Trump is “performing worse compared to where he was at this point in his first term.” The most brutal reading comes from AP-NORC, where Trump has a net approval of negative 26, which is a record low for that poll series. Quinnipiac is showing 37% approval against 56% disapproval among registered voters. NBC’s online survey of nearly 22,000 adults had him at negative 22. Yahoo News/YouGov gave him a negative 20. So the findings have been consistent.
Meanwhile, Pew Research Center found that 50% of Americans say his actions have been worse than expected, compared to 21% who say they have been better. Only 27% now support all or most of his policies, down from 35% in January 2025.
Coincidence or explanation? “Trump, facing declining approval ratings & staring down the possibility that Republicans will lose control of Congress in the midterms, plunged the US into…its most expansive military conflict since the 2003 invasion of Iraq” https://t.co/1BSr5UcLec
— Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) March 3, 2026
Pew found that GOP confidence in Trump on his presidential qualities has declined across the board since. The qualities that were considered include leadership, mental fitness, physical fitness, respect for democratic values, adviser selection, and ethical conduct. As of now, 42% of Republicans are confident that he acts ethically, though it used to be 55% at the start of his term.
Then again, the White House would like you to know that none of this matters. Spokesman Davis Ingle spoke of November 5, 2024, as “the ultimate poll,” in which nearly 80 million Americans voted for Trump. But these ratings are indicators of the midterms.
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Trump went on Truth Social to declare he has “the highest Poll Numbers [he has] ever received.” He also argued at a White House event that his real support is “silent,” which is a strategy that worked in 1972. But will it translate to a second-term president sitting at 37% approval? To be fair, Trump’s aggregate rating has recently gone up from minus 15 to minus 11 on VoteHub.
Trump brags about ‘highest ever’ approval ratings from MAGA base, claims numbers ‘soared’ — despite Epstein backlash https://t.co/nAQzjOAe2z pic.twitter.com/E3XzRLYpOH
— New York Post (@nypost) July 20, 2025
Ballotpedia and RealClearPolitics both show approval around 43%, which is higher than some individual polls. When it comes to polling averages, though, Enten says, “Where is the floor for Donald Trump? I’m not sure there is a floor because if there is one, Donald Trump, at least in term number two, has just fallen through it to another low level.”
Will the White House stop pointing to 2024 and start worrying about 2026 soon?
