Considering Google Chrome OS with a serious pinch of salt

Some 24 hours after Google surprised no one and announced Google Chrome OS, the tech blogosphere has experienced its own equivalent of a Royal Wedding. While there’s been a full spectrum of opinion, the coverage is tending towards OMG OMG OMG Google is going to kill Microsoft, or something like that. With the fullness of 18 hours, here’s my thoughts.

Not a Microsoft killer yet

The line from more than a few sites has been to call Chrome OS a Microsoft Windows killer. If you’ve heard that line before its because every operating system launched since Windows 3 has been called a potential Windows killer, and I don’t need to point out Microsoft’s market share today.

Chrome OS will offer no serious challenge to Windows this year, next year or for years to come. But this isn’t to say that it may be the foundation of something that by the middle of the next decade might be. Google is smartly targeting Chrome OS at the cheap end of the market, a market that has already seen penetration by Linux. Once more and more try and use Chrome OS, and it improves with time, we could be seeing the equivalent today of Windows 1.0 (remembering that Windows only really took off in version 3.)

Not fully featured

Some arguing against Chrome OS have stated that it is deeply flawed because it lacks computer specific software (I’ve seen Photoshop mentioned on a few sites.) I find this line of attack strange because it ignores the underlying premise of Chrome OS to begin with: this is primarily a Web OS. The use of the Linux kernel is there only to render the browser (and associated plugins), nothing more or less. The software layer comes via the web, not via the OS. Google even mentions this in their post

For application developers, the web is the platform. All web-based applications will automatically work and new applications can be written using your favorite web technologies

Now this isn’t to say that every single piece of desktop software can easily be replaced on the web, because it can’t. But the key here is market and time. Google is pitching Chrome OS at netbooks, and netbooks are primarily used for internet access. If you’re wanting to run Photoshop or a serious range of desktop programs, you’re more likely to buy a fully fledged laptop and not a netbook. Time is the other consideration here. Chrome OS isn’t going to market until the second half of 2010, and you’d be looking at 2011 or 2012 before it gets any significant penetration. With high speed broadband being rolled out across the world, and 3G and now 4G networks becoming available, the ease in which net based applications can be accessed continues to improve, and those applications themselves improve as well. Yes, Chrome OS isn’t for everyone, but nor is Google aiming it in that direction.

It’s all about Google

It is interesting to consider that the older Google gets, the more it acts like Microsoft every year. Google Chrome OS is all about Google, specifically tie-ins to Google products. By offering a Web OS, Google is pushing people away from desktop apps (primarily those provided by Microsoft) towards its own online products (such as Google Docs.) Chrome OS is the missing link in the Google empire, a core base product that links the others.

Early Battle

As I noted yesterday, Chrome OS is going to see Google go head to head with Microsoft, but it will be a battle not a war. Microsoft has already aggressively targeted OEM’s who have been offering Linux based netbooks, and there’s no reason to believe that the same won’t hold true for OEM’s who offer installs of Chrome OS. The battle will be a good for consumers because it will force Microsoft to heavily discount Windows on netbook, keeping prices low, but don’t confuse a small battle with a full blown operating system war, because it’s still not on the horizon.

Conclusion

The hype around Google Chrome OS isn’t surprising, but the news needs to be taken with a serious pinch of salt. The truth as always is somewhere in the middle. Chrome OS will hopefully drive some more competition in the OS market, and competition leads to lower prices and increased innovation, and that’s good for all of us.