How The 75th Golden Globes Impacts Awards Season

In a sea of Hollywood elites dressed in black, the women’s voice stood out the most at the 75th Golden Globe awards. Their voices were unanimous as they all said at once “time’s up.”

Hosted by nighttime talk show host Seth Meyers on Sunday night, the Golden Globes kicked off awards season with another year full of politically-charged humor, surprise wins, and heartfelt acceptance speeches. The biggest winners from the night were the films Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, a black comedy about a grieving mother confronting her police department for failing to find her daughter’s murderer, and Lady Bird, a coming-of-age drama about a teenager’s tumultuous relationship with her mother. Both films respectively won Best Drama and Best Comedy during the ceremony, and kept in theme with the night filled with female empowerment and gender equality.

Yet, the Golden Globes has always behaved as a mere tease to awards season: a taste of what’s to come before we get to the full meal. And as the Golden Globes are a popular conversation-starter for what’s to come, it’s worth taking a look at the night’s wins to see how they’ll perform by the time the 90th Academy Awards rolls around.

Note: The following percentages are generated by comparing Golden Globe ceremonies to Academy Award ceremonies from the year 2000 and onward on iMDB. Also, since the drama categories usually perform better during awards season than the comedy categories do, this year’s best comedy picture, actor, and actress is omitted from this analysis.

Best Drama: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Oscar Percentage: 41 percent

Three Billboards was a surprise hit during awards night, taking home four Golden Globes including Best Drama. Yet, viewers should hold their peace before calling the Best Picture race so early. Out of the past seven ceremonies, only three Best Drama winners have won Best Picture at the Academy Awards: Moonlight, 12 Years A Slave, and Argo. The rest of the winners have sharply contradicted each other, from The Social Network losing to The King’s Speech in 2011, to Boyhood losing to Birdman in 2015. Now don’t be mistaken: Three Billboards’ Best Drama win definitely sets it in the lead among the pack. But wait until the Guild awards later this month before settling on your prediction.

Best Actor: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

Oscar Percentage: 64 percent

This category is more consistent between the Golden Globes and the Oscars. Out of the past 17 years, 11 best actor awards have aligned with that year’s Oscar winners. Since Oldman has been widely praised for his role as Winston Churchill in The Darkest Hour and has long been considered an underdog in both the Golden Globes and the Oscars, it’s hard to see awards season turning against his favor.

Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Oscar Percentage: 64 percent

Also relatively consistent between all of its best actress winners, five out of seven best actress winners from the past decade have all won the Oscar as well as the Golden Globe. For the two drama actresses that didn’t win, the best comedy actress winners from those years won in their place. Considering McDormand’s extensive filmography as well as the challenging nature of her role in Three Billboards, her Golden Globe win places her in the lead among the pact of potential nominees. Keep a close eye on her throughout awards season.

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Oscar Percentage: 76 percent

The only two times where the best supporting actor winner at the Golden Globes did not win at the Oscars was the past two years, and those actors were Sylvester Stallone for Creed and Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals. Stallone lost to Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies at the Oscars, and Taylor-Johnson wasn’t even nominated that year. Other than those discrepancies, Sam Rockwell’s odds are looking solid for the Oscars. Pay attention to him during the Screen Actors Guild Awards on January 21.

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Oscar Percentage: 64 percent

More spotty compared to other Oscar ceremonies, there were two ceremonies in the past decade where the Golden Globe and Oscar winners for Best Supporting Actress did not match up. Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years A Slave lost to Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle in 2014, and in 2016 Oscar winner Alicia Vikander wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe for her performance in The Danish Girl. Janney’s win for I, Tonya definitely sets her ahead for awards season, but be cautious of the other nominees that might nab the Oscar from her first.

Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Oscar Percentage: 47 percent

Honestly, do not pay attention to director Guillermo Del Toro’s win for The Shape of Water. It’s a great honor for sure, as he points out that he’s worked 25 years to get his first Golden Globe win last night. But this category has very little bearing on who will win the Oscar. Ben Affleck famously won the Golden Globe and the Director’s Guild of America award in 2013, but ended up not even being nominated for the Oscars later on. Wait for the DGA’s early in February and root for Del Toro if you’re a fan.

Best Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Oscar Percentage: 70 percent

Writer-director Martin McDonagh’s chances here are doubled since the Golden Globes has only one screenplay category, while the Oscars has categories for both adapted and original screenplays. Considering this was Three Billboards’ fourth Globe from the night, this puts it in good tracking in the original screenplay category at this year’s Oscars. Watch and wait to see how it performs.

Best Original Score: The Shape of Water

Oscar Percentage: 58 percent

Even though this category was incredibly inconsistent the decade before (only five out of 10 Golden Globe winners also won the Oscar), this category has become more reliable the past decade, with five out of seven winners taking home both the Golden Globe and the Oscar. However, when Alexandre Desplat won his first Oscar for The Grand Budapest Hotel in 2015, he wasn’t even nominated for the Golden Globes earlier that year. His win this year for The Shape of Water definitely gives him an edge for the Oscars later in March. Still, take it with a grain of salt.

Best Original Song: “This Is Me”, The Greatest Showman

Oscar Percentage: 41 percent

Although the Golden Globes have matched up with the Oscars more often in this category in recent years, that still only accounts for seven out of 17 ceremonies held the past two decades. Go with your gut on this one, because the Golden Globes aren’t going to be very helpful in predicting this category.

Best Animated Feature: Coco

Oscar Percentage: 72 percent

Since this is the youngest awards category at the Golden Globes (the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t include a Best Animated Feature category in their ceremony until 2007), the statistics for best animated feature are automatically skewered since less data is available for it. Still, eight out of 11 winners in this category also took home the Oscar for their respective years. Coco’s odds are looking pretty good right now.

Best Foreign Language Feature: In The Fade

Oscar Percentage: 47 percent

While Germany’s Golden Globe win for In The Fade definitely looks good on the statuette, only eight out of 17 foreign-language features share the Golden Globe win with the Academy Award. This category could go any way on Oscar night. Flip a coin for good luck.