Election Day 2016: Here’s What Early Voting Data Says About What To Expect On Tuesday

Election Day is on Tuesday, but tens of millions of Americans have already cast their vote. Before the first public polling location opens its doors, Pew Research estimates that up to 50 million voters will have already voted which is 40 percent of the electorate.

Thirty-seven states allow citizens to skip the lines and enjoy the sweet luxury of voting early. A quick flashback to the Arizona primaries should remind us all why early voting should be welcomed and strongly encouraged. The early voting data so far points to a massive spike in Hispanic voters in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. According to CNN, 30 million votes were already cast by Friday.

The Hispanic early voting turnout in Florida has increased by 129 percent since 2008. These numbers improve Clinton’s already high odds of winning. The amount of time that the Trump and Clinton campaigns have spent in Florida in recent days prove how imperative the state’s highly-coveted 29 electoral votes are for claiming victory on Election Day night. Clinton has a slight edge in Florida’s recent polls, and the early voter turnout data so far puts her in a good spot.

Georgia is another swing state to watch on Tuesday. The early voter data suggests the state could be a photo finish. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Trump a lead by 4.6 points, but there’s only one problem. The Hispanic early voter turnout in Georgia has increased by 144 percent since 2012.

Nevada is one of the many states Trump must win in order to have a chance on Tuesday. His polling numbers appear to predict a solid victory, but not so fast. Jon Ralston, political analyst at KTNV, believes Trump will suffer a crushing defeat on Tuesday after reviewing the early voter data.

Clark County, Nevada, has a population of 2 million people. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid has the home-field advantage here. Reid and the Clinton campaign have built an effective ground game to get out the vote early and often — and it worked. Ralston said Nevada’s early voting record turnout is bad news for Trump and Republicans.

“Trump is probably down 12-15 points in Clark County and 65-70,000 votes. You can’t make that up unless Election Day turnout is so large and so GOP-heavy that he could. And with two-thirds of the vote in, and with Democrats not simply willing to roll over and not rev up the machine on Election Day, that ain’t happening.”

North Carolina is another must-win for Trump. Clinton and Trump are neck-in-neck in the polling, but a 75 percent increase in Hispanic early voting since 2012 is not a good sign for the Republican nominee. It’s important to note that the early polling data is not just bad news for Trump.

The Hispanic early vote is up, but the African-American early vote is down in Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina. Philip Bump from the Washington Post writes that the lower turnout in this demographic is due, in part, to the changes made to the early voting laws.

“The flip side of that decrease among black voters in North Carolina and Georgia is a big increase in the density of the white vote. In Wisconsin, as well, more of the early vote electorate is white than in 2012. That suggests an advantage for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who polls better with white voters than nonwhite voters, particularly in more Republican states.”

Does all of this polling data showing an increase in Hispanic voting mean Trump is toast? No. But it does indicate how important a strong ground game is in a close election. Clinton has Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, and many other prominent Democrats rallying her supporters and five times as many staffers on the payroll than the Trump campaign. Trump does have more enthusiastic supporters, but he doesn’t have a party unified behind him. Betting a substantial amount of money that he will win after each vote is cast on Election Day is not a safe bet, according to the early polling data.

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