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Pavlof Volcano May Erupt Before The End Of The Year

By Jennifer Deutschmann
Published on: 10:26 PST, Jul 5, 2016

Alaska’s Pavlof Volcano may erupt before the end of the year, according to the Alaska Volcano Observatory. As explained by the AVO, the ice- and snow-covered stratovolcano has shown increased activity in recent days, which may be an indication that the volcano could erupt “with little or no warning.”

On Friday, the Alaska Volcano Observatory raised Pavlof volcano’s aviation color code to “yellow,” which indicates it “is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background level.” The organization also raised the volcano alert level to “advisory,” which is one step above “normal.”

According to the AVO, the Pavlof Volcano, which is located on the southwestern tip of the Alaska Peninsula, “is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc.”

Between 1762 and 2016, scientists recorded a total of 35 confirmed Pavlof Volcano eruptions. According to Geology.com, they also recorded 10 suspected, but unconfirmed, eruptions and four reports of significant “non-eruptive activity.”

Although a majority of the eruptions were rated at a 3 or below on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, which rates the strength of a volcanic eruption, the suspected 1762 eruption was likely the most violent — with an estimated VEI rating of 4.

Although an eruption is unlikely to reach any populated areas, the associated ash cloud could have a strong impact on air travel.

The Pavlof Volcano’s most recent eruption, which was in March, created a dense plume of ash that reached heights exceeding 37,000 feet. US News reports the cloud covered an area of approximately 400 square miles and reduced visibility significantly.

In addition to reducing visibility, dense plumes of ash can cause serious mechanical issues including complete engine failure.

Nature World News explains volcanic ash is composed of a gravel-like substance, which melts into glass when it is exposed to the heat inside a jet engine. The glass can clog engine’s moving parts and cause it to malfunction.

As a result, airlines were forced to cancel dozens of flights and thousands of people were diverted to alternate airlines and flights.

Alaska Airlines spokeswoman Bobbie Egan said flying through the ash simply is not worth the associated risk of mechanical failure and possible loss of life.

Although Pavlof’s eruptions are not generally violent, ash remains a specific concern. U.S. Geological Survey geologist Chris Waythomas said it is simply impossible to predict how long the volcano will continue to spew ash if it does erupt.

“It can erupt for periods of hours to days or it can go on for much longer periods of time… It won’t erupt continuously for many months or a year. It will be intermittent. But the eruption cycle could go on for a while, or it could abruptly shut off and be done tomorrow.”

According to reports, hundreds of international passenger planes and dozens of freight planes travel through the region each day. In addition to interrupting travel plans, cancelled flights would put a significant financial strain on the airlines and the community.

In an interview with KUCB, geophysicist David Schneider said the recent activity is enough to increase monitoring of the Pavlof Volcano, as it can indicate an eruption is imminent.

“Pavlof is one of those volcanoes that can erupt without very much in the way of precursory activities… It’s very easy for the magma to arise in the volcano and make it out. So even subtle signs of unrest we think it is prudent to increase our alert level.”

Monitoring protocols include keeping an eye on the strength and duration of any tremors as well as the volcano’s overall temperature.

Alaska’s Pavlof Volcano is not currently erupting. However, scientists believe the recent activity indicates it will before the end of the year.

[Image via Alexander Piragis/Shutterstock]

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