New Donald Trump polls indicate that Democrats may be defecting from their party and supporting the GOP election 2016 presidential front-runner.
Whether that impacts Iowa (or the upcoming primary states) in the near term remains to be seen.
According to the Real Clear Politics average, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz holds a narrow 2.8 percent lead over the real estate mogul and ex-Celebrity Apprentice star in that state, assuming any of the polling data is accurate.
In a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, the two candidates are virtually tied, the New York Post explained.
“Cruz leads Trump among ‘likely’ caucus goers by 4 points in Iowa (28-24 percent) –which is within the GOP poll’s 4.6 percent margin of error. The Texas senator is followed by Marco Rubio at 13 percent and Ben Carson at 11 percent. But among less committed caucuses-goers, Trump leads Cruz by two points with ‘potential’ voters, signaling the billionaire would do better in a large turnout election.”
A Qunnipiac University poll out today shows a similar close contest, with leaders Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus attendees in Iowa.
Trump currently holds a commanding lead in New Hampshire in the run-up to the primary in that state on February 9. He also tops the GOP field among Republican voters on a national basis.
In those states with closed primaries, as well as the February 1 Iowa Caucus, Democrats and Independents would have to re-register as Republicans to participate, however. Ted Cruz apparently also has a much more robust get-out-vote field organization in Iowa.
The “stump for Trump” ladies, Diamond and Silk, have launched an effort on YouTube (see clip below) to encourage Democrats to “ditch and switch” to the Republican party, and there is some anecdotal evidence that this is happening.
“Supporters of Mr. Trump have been spreading the word on Twitter that they have been switching parties and have been urging others to do the same,” the New York Times noted.
According to a telephone survey compiled in late December by Columbus, Ohio-based Clout Research, 45 percent of Hispanic voters and 40 percent of African-American voters intend to vote for Donald Trump for president, in addition to the support he currently receives from other demographic groups.
A former Democrat and Independent, Trump himself has continued to maintain that he brings in brand-new voters who have been previously turned off by or disinterested in the political process. On the other hand, many in the so-called GOP establishment have warned that Trump can’t win the November 2016 general election.
As alluded to above, a new poll suggests that about 20 percent of Democrats, a sizable cohort, would vote for Trump in the general election, in a survey of about 900 likely voters, U.S. News reported.
A newly released Trump political ad (embedded below) apparently also resonated with the same respondents.
“The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful ‘get it done’ businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters’ minds,” remarked polling firm Mercury Analytics CEO Ron Howard about his firm’s survey data.
A separate poll revealed that Trump receives “the support of 29 percent of registered Republicans but 36 percent of registered independents and 43 percent of registered Democrats, who in some states can still participate in GOP primaries,” Politico reported.
According to Politico, the Donald Trump coalition “that certainly begins with conservative, blue-collar men now extends to pro-choice Republicans, independents and even registered Democrats unnerved, primarily, by illegal immigration.”
Among other things in his vow to make America great again, Trump has promised to build a “beautiful” wall across the U.S.-Mexico border.
Senator Cruz is regarded as having more sway with evangelical Christians in Iowa, but Byron York of the Washington Examiner writes that “the evangelical vote is not monolithic” and a segment of that bloc could go to the brash New York businessman, according to those already in the Trump camp.
“Evangelicals want jobs, too. They want to secure the border. They want to get rid of the Islamic State, especially after Paris and San Bernardino…In addition, they say, evangelical voters are tired of voting for candidates who appeal to their faith and then don’t have the strength to win the Republican nomination or the White House.”
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) January 11, 2016
In an interview yesterday on NBC’s Meet the Press, Donald Trump claimed, “I have an amazing relationship with evangelicals, with the Tea Party, with the people of Iowa.”
A perhaps unexpected win in Iowa would solidify Trump’s momentum going forward into the primary season.
Based on existing Donald Trump polls, do you think he has a chance to win the Iowa Caucus?
[Photo by Patrick Semansky/AP]