Category: Technology Author : Steven Hodson Posted: April 28, 2009
Tags : celebs, numbers, retention, Twitter, users
Everyone is carrying on about the meteoric rise of Twitter following the recent race between Aston Kutcher and CNN for that magical one million follower number. Celebs and other well known people climbing on the Twitter bandwagon as if it is the greatest thing in their lives.
But, for as quickly as its numbers are rising one has to wonder if those numbers in anyway reflect the number of people sticking with the service.
Well according to the Nielsen Wire blog Twitter is suffering from some of the lowest retention numbers of social media services. Where services like Facebook and MySpace experience a 70 percent retention rate of new members Twitter is lucky if it can manage 30 percent. Only since the Oprah, Kutcher and CNN explosion has Twitter’s retention rate managed to reach 40 percent but there is nothing to suggest so far that we’ll see that number stick.
As Dave Martin, Nielsen Online Vice President, said in the post
By plotting the minimum retention rates for different Internet audience sizes, it is clear that a retention rate of 40 percent will limit a site’s growth to about a 10 percent reach figure. To be clear, a high retention rate doesn’t guarantee a massive audience, but it is a prerequisite. There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defecting ones after a certain point.
I’ve always maintained, and still do, that sign up numbers actually mean very little. In most cases we are dealing with first blush popularity puffing up the numbers but in the cold light of day they have no lasting value. In this case Twitter might appear to be exploding across the landscape but beyond the initial flood of celebs and other glitterati just how many of them will still be around in a month, in six months or a year. Will the numbers still show the same type of growth at that point or will they settle down to the more realistic count of actual users.
[top graphic courtesy of CFO Strategist – graph courtesy of Nielsen Online]
![[Graph] Proper Use of LOL in a Text Message](http://www.inquisitr.com/wp-content/2011/09/when-i-use-LOL-in-a-text-100x100.png)
Apr 28, 2009
I've read both your analysis and Peter Kafka's analysis at MediaMemo, and I feel like a funding-starved professor when I declare that more research is needed.
Ignoring the issues of measurement (the study only measured direct visits to twitter.com), I'd like to have a better understanding of WHY Facebook and MySpace have a better retention rate. Kafka notes that Twitter “takes a while to make sense,” but that's true with any service, including the aforementioned Facebook and MySpace.
Could it be that the simplicity of Twitter, and thus the relative paucity of information available on Twitter, make it harder to keep people active on the service?
Apr 28, 2009
I'm not sure John what it is that is contributing to the low retention numbers for Twitter but if they don't manage to get them higher I don't think it bodes well for the service in the long run. I think as well that what could be a very big contributing factor to this is the fact that they have such an open API and because of the developer base around the service it *appears* as if people aren't coming back. When in fact all the users have done is switch from using the web interface; which would give more accurate user numbers in regards to retention, to using third party clients. That just might be the missing key here.
Apr 28, 2009
Very interesting piece. Just yesterday I was explaining to a new Twitter-addict that MySpace is not, in fact, dead, but rather become more of a household commodity. It is stable now, for musicians and filmmakers and comics and all other sorts of creative types to set up a shop at MySpace and leave it there to do its thing. Having a consistent address and platform is important if you want to have any sort of marketing plan. Otherwise you are just chasing butterflies. I actively used Facebook for a while but the constant attention-grabbing became tiresome. I find of the three MySpace requires the least of my attention and yet has developed the strongest followers. I find Twitter followers incredibly fickle.
Apr 28, 2009
There were considerably more aspects to Facebook and MySpace, even in their toddler stages to keep people coming back. Additionally, if the above stats track the url, how does twitter's SMS only user weigh in? They do exist in droves, as it's a huge draw for many low model phone users.
Apr 28, 2009
To paraphrase that great sage of our times, Yogi Berra,
” Twitter.com is so popular, no one goes there anymore. “
Apr 28, 2009
The point about third party apps is definitely a factor in the accuracy of the retention numbers. A better gauge may be to find a way to track which accounts are actually tweeting, not necessarily which account web pages are being viewed. Another point to consider might be that many people create an account, but only use it to listen. They will use a third party app, follow a bunch of people, and just listen without responding. In some way, that's retention, isn't it? But you can't really track it.
I also think that twitter, while seemingly very simple, has immense applications that are still being discovered. What could the world do with instant, real time communication? It's a question that's kind of overwhelming. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that twitter, and the technology it's built on, is something that many people just don't know what to do with. That uncertainty may turn some away until people can get a handle on what to do with it.
Apr 28, 2009
I believe the graph is for the last 12 months but I could be wrong
Apr 28, 2009
I wonder if the 60% drop-out is not made up entirely of folk who 'don't get it', but a large proportion of teenagers and kids who get swept up by the hype but quickly realise that Twitter doesn't offer the rich media experience of other social networks – videos, photos, applications etc – and move on. I actually hope I'm right; I'd love to see Twitter maintain its mid-30s average audience.
Apr 29, 2009
I bet it's the lack of photo albums in twitter. I don't care what anyone reckons, twitter does NOT need to support photo albums. It also shouldn't.
Apr 29, 2009
The issue with retention on Twitter is in large part due to the fact that it is a barebones service on the Web – you don't sit in your browser and continually bring up Twitter.com – you NEED to get 3rd party apps to make twitter really useful. Facebook and MySpace don't require a similar “next step” for users to benefit from their platform. Tweetdeck, TwitterFox, and mobile applications that link Twitter to your Blackberry or iPhone make the service worth using on a much more regular basis. Facebook and MySpace star exclusively in the browser, and 3rd party apps were an afterthought for them – or at least that's how it seems to a casual observer.
I'm “selfreliant” on Twitter – hope you'll get on and come follow
Apr 29, 2009
So what! It isn't life threatening neither is it necessary, but in my case it's fun, good for meeting people of similar inclinations and tastes, and while it lasts – pretty good for networking. If it isn't here in a year, what have I lost? I'll probably have more free time…….!
Apr 29, 2009
I just read your Shooting at Bubbles post The hidden cost of an API driven business. (For those who haven't read this post, it makes the point that ANY service that provides an API may suffer from “the API effect,” in which the service's page view numbers are lowered because of the third parties who use the API to provide services to people who don't go to the service's own pages. Steven notes that while we're talking about Twitter today, we could just as easily be talking about Facebook tomorrow.)
A question for the more technical people who are reading this – is there a way, or could there be a way, to measure how many people are accessing a service (rather than just how many people are visiting the service's own pages)?
Apr 30, 2009
OK. Thanking u…
i can write blog, news, articles, net social working..
home based business program, twitter net marketing, market in india.ning
hubpages,
Apr 30, 2009
I'm not really surprised to find out that Twitter's retention rate is lower than Facebook and MySapce. Twitter had a huge boom within the social media sphere, but because of lack of organization it's beginning to die off. They were definitely right by trying to find something that was a little bit different that set them apart from MySpace and Facebook.
I would suggest checking out a recently launched social network called http://www.HopOnThis.com. Not only does it have the same networking functions as popular networks, but they give away cash and prizes to their members for social activity on the site.
Apr 30, 2009
Nielsen ended up answering the question that I posted above, regarding accurate measurement of EVERYONE that is using Twitter, not just those who go to twitter.com. MediaMemo quotes Nielsen:
“As an update, we went beyond just Twitter.com, adding in more than 30 websites and applications that feed into the Twitter community including: TweetDeck, TwitPic, Twitstat, Hootsuite, EasyTweets, Tumblr, and many others. The results verified our initial findings: about 60 percent of people on Twitter end up abandoning the service after a month.”
May 1, 2009
So, now let's go back and reconsider the slow-to-grow FriendFeed. What's the retention rate over there compared to Twitter?
The novelty of Twitter wears off quickly. Once it does it mostly boils down to a bunch of people bombarding you with links. It's not “status updates” and it's not conversation. For those two things you have to go to Facebook and FriendFeed respectively.
The truth of Twitter comes out quickly to new users. Lots of celebrity hype, and not much substance. The fact that I can use it on my phone just doesn't out weigh the rest. Oh, and have you tried to use it via SMS? Slow and unreliable (like their website I might add) Most people just aren't willing to put up with constant delivery failures, failwhales, and generally a service that doesn't work (and never has!).
Add to that the disingenuous behavior of twitter's staff. TWITTER DOESN'T USE TWITTER. Not from the top down or the bottom up.Contrast that the the rollout of the FriendFeed beta into full-time production: Almost everyone on the FriendFeed staff was online and helping users make the adjustment. Those folks even use their service for fun.
Slow and steady is going to win the Race…As I said before.