Residents of California are understandably shaken over new predictions that a “mega-quake” of magnitude 8.0 or greater will rock the Golden State sometime within the next 30 years. According to the Los Angeles Times , the U.S. Geological Survey has raised California’s risk of such a quake from 4.7 percent to 7 percent. In a 2014 report by The Inquisitr , we reported that California’s drought led to increased concerns surrounding the possibility of a massive earthquake in the region.
One reason behind the new, increased chances for a devastating mega-quake is the conclusion by geologists that earthquake faults are interconnected, allowing quakes that start along one fault line to spread, or “jump,” to others. After looking at the layout of faults throughout California, U.S. Geological Survey scientists are now of the opinion that there is a compounded and relatively imminent risk for a catastrophic event in the region.
“[I]t has become increasingly apparent that we are not dealing with a few well-separate faults, but with a vast interconnected fault system,” said U.S.G.S. seismologist Ned Field. “In fact, it has become difficult to identify where some faults end and others begin, implying many more opportunities for multi-fault ruptures.”
The U.S.G.S. laid out its concern for a looming mega-quake in a publication entitled “Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast.” According to Sci-Tech Today , the report was compiled with the cooperation of leading individuals in the fields of seismology, geology, physics, engineering, and related disciplines. The agency released the report through a number of outlets, including via a link posted to its official Twitter page.
UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System. http://t.co/lxvF61GKJD pic.twitter.com/hXw868O89l
— USGS (@USGS) March 10, 2015
While the report does not include a specific prediction regarding a likely date of a mega-quake, scientists continue to develop techniques that might aid in the early detection of such devastating episodes.
Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake California Earthquake Center, commented on the U.S.G.S. report in a statement quoted by Sci-Tech Today .
“We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,” said Jordan. “But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.”
While the initial damage caused by a mega-quake can be tremendous, the danger does not always subside in the days, weeks, and even months following the initial event. Euronews reports that some areas of Japan affected by the magnitude 9.0 mega-quake in 2011 still experience aftershocks four years after the event. Professor Shinji Toda of Tohoku University’s International Research Institute of Disaster Science in Sendai says that these smaller quakes place the region at a high risk for larger quakes in the future. Moreover, he asserts there is a possibility that these tremors will not subside for another century.
While many California residents are conditioned to take occasional tremors and minor earthquakes in stride, the increased likelihood of a major seismic disaster presents the region with a host of challenges moving forward. The need to adapt and survive amidst the threat of a mega-quake will undoubtedly require coordinated and cooperative efforts by communities, industry, and government.
[Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]
