Economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is shaking the Republican Party’s position in South Texas. Business leaders in the Rio Grande Valley warn that mass deportations are harming key industries and could reverse recent GOP gains in a region historically dominated by Democrats.
Trump won several counties in the Valley in 2024, a huge victory in an area long seen as a Democratic stronghold. However, local employers say increased enforcement by ICE has reduced the workforce that supports construction, hospitality, retail, and real estate. This has clearly threatened the region’s economic stability and they regret voting red.
According to NBC News, builders and business owners report stalled projects due to a lack of labor. Consumer spending is falling as families worry about workplace raids.
Ronnie Cavazos, president of the South Texas Builders Association, described the impact as immediate and severe. “This will put us out of business if it continues,” Cavazos told the publication, referring to ongoing immigration enforcement that has taken workers from job sites.
The Rio Grande Valley economy depends heavily on immigrant labor, including undocumented workers who have long filled jobs in construction and services. Industry leaders say raids have interrupted crews mid-project, delayed housing developments, and cut into already tight profits for contractors facing high material costs.
Mario Guerrero, executive director of the same builders association, noted growing frustration among voters who supported Trump in the last election. He told NBC News that many share his “disappointment” with the administration’s enforcement approach and believe it has political implications.
“I can guarantee you the Valley will never be red again,” Guerrero said. “At least not anytime soon.”
Retailers and hospitality operators expressed similar concerns as business owners reported fewer customers and workers hesitant to come to work amid fears of ICE enforcement. Some employers have struggled to replace experienced workers, even as wages rise.
Trump campaigned on a promise to conduct the largest deportation operation in U.S. history. He argued that strict enforcement would safeguard American jobs and reduce crime. Administration officials have claimed the effort targets individuals with criminal records, but ICE booking data shows many detainees do not have criminal convictions.
Even in hardcore MAGA country, the deportation of hard-working, non-criminal immigrations have hit Trump hard in the polls.
In the Valley, where cross-border commerce and family ties influence daily life, the policy has created economic ripple effects that reach beyond construction sites. Local economists cited by NBC News warned that labor shortages could slow homebuilding and hurt consumer spending, undermining a regional economy that had started to recover after pandemic disruptions.
Republican strategists acknowledge that South Texas is still competitive but say they are monitoring the economic backlash closely as the midterm elections approach. Democrats have pointed to the Valley as evidence that aggressive enforcement could alienate swing voters who prioritize economic stability over party loyalty.
The region’s political shift in 2024 was driven by concerns about border security and inflation. Now, some residents believe the immediate economic pain from enforcement has changed the discussion.
Guerrero mentioned that the optimism following Trump’s victory has turned into anxiety. Contractors who once supported the president are questioning whether the policy balance has tipped too far.
With the midterms coming up, the economic direction of the Valley may determine whether Republican gains continue or decline. For now, the odds are not in favour of the GOP, who face a tough battle against the surging Democrats.
