The sudden death of California Republican Representative Doug LaMalfa is changing the dynamics in the House of Representatives in ways that could have effects beyond his district, especially with the new voter-approved congressional map pushed by Governor Gavin Newsom.
LaMalfa’s passing further narrows Republicans’ already delicate majority, reducing it to just five seats. This margin could shrink again in the coming weeks, leaving GOP leaders with little room for error as they work to keep their coalition intact.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota confirmed LaMalfa’s death in a post on X. He called LaMalfa a loving father and husband as well as a strong advocate for his constituents and rural America. House Speaker Mike Johnson echoed this sentiment in a separate statement, saying that Congress was devastated by the loss of a colleague who fiercely defended Northern California’s communities and natural resources.
Before LaMalfa’s death, Republicans held a narrow edge of 219 seats compared to Democrats’ 213. Even before the news broke, that margin was under pressure, as former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene officially left Congress earlier this week. With LaMalfa gone, Republicans now hold 218 seats to Democrats’ 213.
The numbers may get even tighter as Democrats are expected to gain another seat later this month in a special election in Texas’s 18th Congressional District, where two Democrats are moving to a runoff to replace the late Representative Sylvester Turner. If that race goes as anticipated, the House balance would shift to 218-214. A separate special election in New Jersey’s 11th District, vacated by Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, is also expected to remain Democratic.
This situation has drawn more attention to California, where Newsom’s recently approved Proposition 50 redistricting map is likely to change several races ahead of the midterms. LaMalfa’s district has long been solidly conservative, and under the old lines, Republicans would usually be favored to keep it. However, the new map, passed by voters last year, gives the district a Democratic lean. The Cook Political Report now shows the seat as Solid Democrat under the updated lines, suggesting it could be a potential flip in the next contest.
Newsom has not yet announced a special election date for LaMalfa’s seat, and no date has been set for other pending races, creating uncertainty about the timeline. Still, the long-term implications are clear: a once-safe Republican seat is now at risk of becoming another Democratic gain.
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that the shrinking margin makes it much harder for Republicans to govern. He noted that with numbers this close, even a few defections could hinder legislation.
“These developments have increased the importance of any individual Republican House member, as they can nearly single-handedly influence what Republicans can do in the House,” Panagopoulos said. “Virtually anyone could disrupt Johnson’s efforts to make progress.”
Representative Jim Baird of Indiana is hospitalized after a car crash, and it’s unclear when he will return to Congress. President Donald Trump has stated that Baird will be fine, but his absence complicates vote counting on the floor.
Panagopoulos warned that while Democrats are nearing a potential shift in control, the balance remains fragile for both parties. Deaths or retirements on either side can quickly change the math in such a closely divided chamber.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise praised him as a hardworking team player, while Senator Adam Schiff, a California Democrat, recognized LaMalfa’s deep commitment to his community and constituents.
Republicans are officially in survival mode with little margin for error, and it appears Newsom’s redistricting efforts, first inspired by Trump’s effort to do the same thing in Texas, may pay off big by slimming the GOP’s small majority even further.
