New Poll Shows Joe Biden Leading By Six Points Nationally

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Tougaloo College
Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images

A new poll released exclusively to The Hill on Tuesday showed Joe Biden with a six-point lead over Donald Trump nationally. The latest survey done by Harvard CAPS/Harris showed that 53 percent of voters would vote for former Vice-President Biden if the election were held today, while only 47 percent of voters said they would vote for President Trump.

Other recent national polls have also shown a preference for Biden. Monday’s polling numbers from Real Clear Politics also showed Biden with a six-point lead over Trump with numbers that almost exactly matched the numbers reported by The Hill.

A recent analysis of polling data found that Trump is losing crucial support from older voters. Biden has a one-point lead over Trump with voters over 65 — a demographic that Trump decisively won in 2016. The data showed that Trump is also losing support from voters in the 45 to 64, 50 to 64, and 50-plus demographics, but the loss of support has not been as dramatic as it has been with voters over 65.

According to The Hill, Trump’s approval rating is dropping at the same time Biden’s national lead is increasing. Recent survey data shows that Trump’s approval rating was at 47 percent on Tuesday, which is two points lower than it was in previous polling. Approval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic is also declining. Only 46 percent of voters approve of his pandemic response as of Tuesday, a five percent drop from previous polling. The Hill posited that Biden’s increasing lead over Trump in national polling may be a result of voters reacting to the response to the coronavirus pandemic by the Trump administration.

Mark Penn, the director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, told The Hill that Trump’s approval rating had been improving over the last 11 months, but that they began to plummet after the coronavirus daily press briefing when the president pondered whether using household disinfectants internally could be a cure for coronavirus.

Penn also told The Hill that the percentage of voters who say they would vote for Biden if the election was today has remained relatively steady while the President’s numbers have steadily declined. Though he also noted that the race is still close and could go either way.

“[Trump] continues to lag in the national presidential horse race while Biden’s numbers have shown no change up or down. This race is far from over and both candidates have potentially winning scenarios.”

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll The Hill cited surveyed over 1,800 voters and was conducted between May 13 and 14. The results were appropriately weighted in order to match national demographics, as is customary with national polling data.