Texas Poll Shows Donald Trump Under 50 Percent Against Top 6 Democrats, GOP Won State Each Election Since 1980

A new poll appears to indicate trouble for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. In the Republican stronghold of Texas, where no Democrat has won the state’s 38 electoral votes since 1976, the poll shows Trump falling to win more than 50 percent support in one-on-one matchups with any of the current top six Democratic contenders. In fact, the University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows that only 40 percent of Texans say that they “definitely” plan to vote for Trump in November.

Forty-seven percent of Texans told the pollster that they will “definitely not” vote to re-elect Trump, in the poll released on February 14, in what could be an indicator of flagging Republican support for the president.

Perhaps more significantly, in the head-to-head matchups against specific Democrats, Trump led in each matchup, but his margins were generally unconvincing and he was able to draw no greater than 47 percent against any of the top six contenders from the other party. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came closest to defeating Trump in Texas, trailing by only two percentage points, 47-45, according to the poll.

The margin of error in the poll was 2.83 points, greater than the difference between Trump and Sanders.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren also came close to Trump, with 44 percent, just three points behind Trump’s 47 percentage points. Trump topped former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg by five points each, 46-41. Former Vice President Joe Biden came in four points behind Trump, at 47-44.

Jimmy Carter (l) was the last Democrat to win Texas, defeating incumbent President Gerald Ford (r) in 1976.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar also came in five points behind Trump in the Texas poll, with a 46-41 margin, identical to the results posted by Buttigieg and Bloomberg.

The close margins could spell trouble for Trump, because no Republican presidential candidate has lost Texas to a Democrat since 1976, when former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter topped incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford by 3.2 percentage points, according to a Texas Tribune review of election results.

Since then, the closest result in Texas came in 1992, when then-President George H.W. Bush edged Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton by 3.5 points. In that election, billionaire entrepreneur Ross Perot — a Texas native — ran as an independent candidate, taking 22 percent of the state’s vote.

In 2016, Trump topped Democrat Hillary Clinton in Texas by nine points, the closest margin in the state since the 1992 race, and second-closest since 1976.

While Biden had consistently performed the best among all Democratic candidates in head-to-head polls with Trump, holding the widest lead as recently as two weeks ago, Bloomberg has since overtaken him.

According to the Real Clear Politics average, Bloomberg now holds a lead of six points over Trump nationally, in an average of all nationwide polls. Biden’s lead over Trump stands at an average of 5.6 points, while Sanders tops Trump by 4.3 points in the RCP average.

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