Danger For Donald Trump As Poll Shows Joe Biden Ahead By 2 In Arizona, Where Trump Beat Hillary Clinton By 4.1
A new danger sign for Donald Trump and his 2020 re-election prospects emerged on Thursday when a new poll showed Trump trailing Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden by two points in Arizona, a state where Trump topped Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election by a 4.1 percentage point margin, according to results published by Politico.
In fact, no Democratic presidential candidate has won Arizona since 1996, when Bill Clinton defeated Republican Senator Bob Dole in the state, according to 270ToWin. But Clinton’s win was the first for a Democrat in Arizona since 1948, when Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey. That means only one Democrat has carried the state in the last 17 elections.
But according to the results of a new OH Predictive Insights poll released on Thursday, Biden could reverse that trend. Biden received 45 percent support from Arizona voters surveyed, compared to 43 percent for Trump. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren also placed within the poll’s margin of error, trailing Trump by a single point, 44-43.
Though Trump leads all other Democrats in Arizona by wider margins, each matchup contained another sign of trouble for Trump.
“The biggest red flag is that Trump doesn’t cross the 50 percent threshold in any of these hypothetical matchups and is hovering in the low-to-mid 40s,” OH Predictive Insights Research Director Mike Noble said in a statement.
Arizona carries 11 electoral votes. If Biden were able to “flip” the state from 2016, he would need to take only 32 additional Electoral College votes that were won by Trump in 2016, assuming that he were to win all of the 18 states won by Clinton, according to a Politico chart.
But in the average of all polls taken in Michigan, according to RealClear Politics, Biden leads Trump in that state, which Trump won narrowly in 2016, by a comfortable 10.3 point margin. Michigan carries 16 electoral votes.
Biden also leads Trump in Pennsylvania, according to the RCP average, by 10.5 points. Trump also won that state narrowly 2016, but if Biden were to hold his lead in the actual election, he would take all 20 electoral votes from Pennsylvania.
Combined with the electoral votes from Michigan and Arizona, Biden would then win 274 Electoral College votes and as a result, the presidency, even if no other state flipped from Trump to the Democrat in the 2020 election.
Biden has also maintained a wide lead in nationwide polls when matched against Trump. As The Inquisitr reported, a Fox News poll released last week showed Biden with a massive, 12-point lead nationally over Trump.
In the RCP average of all national polls, Biden holds a commanding, 8.6 percentage point lead over Trump.
