2016 Electoral Map Results: Comparing Exit Polls With Elections Results In Light Of #Recount2016 [Opinion]
Many Americans have not accepted the initial electoral map results for 2016. It is a feeling that has only intensified in recent days with the intelligence community pointing to alleged Russian hacking of the elections, as the Inquisitr previously reported. Additionally, computer science experts suggesting that the initial tallies of the 2016 electoral map results don’t make sense has increased uncertainty, as have significant discrepancies between exit polls and initial projections made on election day.
To add furor to the intensifying feelings of those unable to understand elections results for 2016, Hillary Clinton’s lead in the popular vote has topped 2 million, reports USA Today. Heavy reports this makes Hillary Clinton’s popular vote the third highest in American history, coming behind only Barack Obama, who takes the number one and number two spot for that.
Rachel Maddow of MSNBC says that anybody that says the 2 million plus lead in the popular vote doesn’t matter, “doesn’t know what they are talking about.” She says, “It matters because we’ve never seen anything like this in the modern era.”
We've never seen anything like this popular vote gap in the modern era. https://t.co/Z5sCyAb9mY
— Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) November 24, 2016
The current lead in the popular vote is consistent with the projections for Hillary Clinton prior to the election. The current small margins in four swing states are not.
Don't look now, but sure seems like Clinton is rebounding in the @FiveThirtyEight forecast. https://t.co/uOyINB225b pic.twitter.com/3ifHHZgtvN
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) November 7, 2016
The margins in at least three swing states are small enough for Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein to call for a recount in those three swing states. This announcement has led to a new trend on Twitter: #Recount2016.
As the Inquisitr reported yesterday, the Governor of the swing state of North Carolina has also filed for a recount in that state after he lost the gubernatorial race. This means that the 2016 electoral map results for elections 2016 are nowhere near finalized with a possible four swing states about to undergo a recount.
Dr. Jill Stein’s announcement yesterday shocked many that have participated in the #AuditTheVote movement to request a recount or vote audit in swing states after hearing multiple reports of Russian hacking of the election. Jill Stein said the only way it could happen was if the public helped her raise the money for it. And they did.
Within 12 hours, Jill Stein had raised the necessary 2.5 million dollars for the Election Integrity project. She is hoping for a total of 4.5 million to cover the legal costs of the recount and has raised almost 3.8 million at the time of press.
Comparing the data of the swing states exit polls with the actual 2016 election results and 2016 electoral map results does reveal some discrepancies. As votes continue to be counted, Hillary Clinton’s lead in the popular vote grows.
Clinton's popular vote lead grows — @KevinQ w @Redistrict data pic.twitter.com/xxTOLtmmGm
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 24, 2016
The state of Michigan is still too close to call for either candidate, but Reuters reports that Donald Trump’s lead in the state is slipping, with a current vote differential of just over 10,000 votes. His vote differential earlier this week was over 13,000 votes. All of the swing states that are in question for a possible recount have very small margins.
Additionally, what perplexes many voters is that the margins of the exit polls compared with the margins of the initial 2016 electoral map results are well beyond the margin of error. But it’s not just that. Many find it peculiar that this particular data trend only happened in four states, which were the four states that Donald Trump needed to win; Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Taking a look at the exit polls published on the CBS News Election Center page reveals initial 2016 election results that expose the gap between the initial results of the exit polls conducted on election day.
In North Carolina, Hillary Clinton received 2,162,074, votes to Donald Trump’s 2,339,603 reported votes. That gives Trump 50.5 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 46.7 percent, a number that is markedly different from exit polling data.
In CBS exit polls in North Carolina, 48.6 percent say they voted Hillary Clinton, 46.5 say they voted Donald Trump in exit polls. The first round of elections results indicated that 46.7 percent voted for Hillary Clinton and 50.54 percent voted for Donald Trump. That is a red shift of 5.9 percent, which is out of the 3 percent margin of error.
The exit polls reported by the CBS News Election Center also gives a look at how the citizens of North Carolina view the two candidates, easily reputed to be the two most contentious and disliked candidates in American elections history.
Also in North Carolina, Donald Trump’s unfavorability rating was 58 percent, Hillary Clinton’s was 56 percent.
Fifty-eight percent in North Carolina said that Donald Trump does not have the temperament to serve effectively as president, and 16 percent of those voted for him anyway. Fifty-two percent said they think Hillary Clinton has the temperament to serve effectively as president, while 41 percent said Trump does.
Also in North Carolina, 49 percent said in exit polls that they felt Hillary Clinton was qualified for the office, while 44 percent said Trump was. Fifty percent thought Donald Trump was not trustworthy, and 18 percent of those respondents voted for him anyway.
In Pennsylvania, exit polls tell a very similar story. Exit polls in Pennsylvania showed that 50.5 percent voted for Hillary Clinton, and 46.1 percent voted for Donald Trump. The first round of 2016 election results projections differed from these result and revealed 47.65 percent voted Hillary Clinton and 48.79 percent voted Donald Trump, a red shift of 5.6 percent in favor of Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton went into election day with a lead in the polls in Pennsylvania.
Also in Pennsylvania, CBS respondents on exit polls gave Donald Trump an unfavorability rating of 56 percent, and 56 percent also said that he is not qualified to serve as president, including 17 percent of his own voters. Forty-three percent said that Hillary Clinton was qualified, 39 percent in Pennsylvania felt Donald Trump was qualified.
Sixty-two percent in Pennsylvania do not believe Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president, including 21 percent of his own voters. Fifty-two percent in Pennsylvania feel that Hillary Clinton does have the temperament, including 12 percent of Trump supporters who say that yes, she does.
Seventy percent of exit poll respondents in Pennsylvania said that Donald Trump’s treatment of women bothered them “some” or “a lot,” including 30 percent of Trump supporters. All of this data suggests that Pennsylvania should have gone to Hillary Clinton as Pennsylvania has gone blue in the last six elections reports 270 To Win.
In Wisconsin, 270 To Win reports that Democrats have won the last seven elections in Wisconsin. CBS exit polls revealed that the likelihood of a Democrat win in Wisconsin was going to happen again. Hillary Clinton held a comfortable lead in Wisconsin for the weeks leading up to the election with sometimes as many as 10 points between her and Donald Trump, but with an average of about six points over the last weeks up to the election.
Clinton Leads By Six Points In Wisconsin In Marquette Pre-Election Poll https://t.co/8NUuBz4PEH pic.twitter.com/Bh4IsGrHMC
— Global Issues Web (@globalissuesweb) November 2, 2016
On election day, 48.2 percent reported in Wisconsin exit polls that they voted for Hillary Clinton and 44.3 percent voted for Donald Trump. The first round of elections 2016 results showed that 46.94 percent voted for Hillary Clinton and 47.87 percent voted for Donald Trump. That is a red shift of 4.8 percent in favor of Donald Trump, well outside a margin of error and completely inconsistent with weeks of polling that had Hillary Clinton ahead.
How Wisconsin voters responded about the candidates also supported the data that suggested that Hillary Clinton would win Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, 48 percent said that Donald Trump’s treatment of women bothered them. 17 percent of those voters voted for Donald Trump anyway.
Fifty-nine percent said Donald Trump does not have the temperament to serve effectively as president, and 17 percent of those voted for him anyway. Forty-eight percent said they think Hillary Clinton had the temperament to serve effectively as president, while 34 percent said Trump did.
Also in Wisconsin, 47 percent said they felt Hillary Clinton was qualified for the office while 31 percent said Trump was. Sixty-one percent thought Donald Trump was not trustworthy, and 21 percent of those respondents voted for him anyway.
Results about how voters feel about the candidates are very similar for Michigan’s exit polls. This swing state is currently projected as too close to call on the 2016 electoral map results.
The current vote differential there between the candidates is just over 10,000, in Trump’s favor. But the Michigan exit polls showed a tight race between the candidates that was essentially a dead heat. Even so, going into the election day, Hillary Clinton had maintained a steady and comfortable lead in the polls.
Poll: Clinton holds lead in Michigan as election nears #fashion #shop #boutique #boutiqa #jumia #hmall #yamanda #fo… pic.twitter.com/19JWKDEyvc
— Boutiqa Shop (@BoutiqaShop) October 28, 2016
In Michigan, exit polls revealed that 46.8 percent said they voted for Hillary Clinton and 46.8 percent voted for Donald Trump. However, the feelings about the candidates revealed in exit polls gave the favorability factor to Hillary Clinton.
CBS respondents gave Donald Trump an unfavorability rating of 59 percent, and 63 percent do not think he is honest and trustworthy, including 20 percent of his own supporters. Fifty-six percent also said that he is not qualified to serve as president, including 17 percent of his own voters.
Forty-three percent said that Hillary Clinton was qualified, 39 percent in Michigan felt Donald Trump was qualified.
Sixty-one percent in Michigan do not believe Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president, including 17 percent of his own voters. Fifty-two percent in Michigan feel that Hillary Clinton does have the temperament, including 11 percent of Trump supporters who say that yes, she does.
Sixty-nine percent in Michigan said that Donald Trump’s treatment of women bothered them “some” or “a lot,” including 29 percent of Trump’s own supporters.
In all of the swing states being promoted for a recount, Donald Trump’s treatment of women and his temperament ranked high in voters as being the issues that bothered voters the most. For Hillary Clinton, the email server issue was the one issue that bothered voters “some” or “a lot.”
In Michigan, 45 percent of exit poll respondents said the email server was an issue, but 88 percent of those responses came from Trump supporters. Eighty-eight percent of Hillary Clinton supporters in Michigan said that issue was a non-starter for them. These numbers regarding Hillary Clinton’s email use are a trend across all four swing states up for a potential recount.
In all four of these swing states, more than 50 percent, and sometimes as high as 80 percent, of voters said that they had made up their mind about the election months ago. Hillary Clinton has cited the FBI letter from FBI Director James Comey 11 days before Election Day as a possible source of her loss, but exit polls across swing states suggest that of those that actually voted, most had their minds made up for a long time.
Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party did not cite the FBI letter from Director Comey as a reason for her Election Integrity initiative, nor is she doing it for Hillary Clinton. But recent revelations about alleged Russian hacking and experts suggesting the systems in these swing states were compromised, are the impetus behind her filing for recounts in all of these swing states.
Dr. Stein believes that the American people deserve a clear and transparent election, and it is very clear that Americans are very uncertain over whether or not that has actually happened. For some Americans, largely Hillary Clinton supporters who do not feel the election results are clear and transparent, Dr. Stein’s announcement is being touted as a “Thanksgiving miracle.” Others question Stein’s motives for #Recount2016, while some find it comical that Americans will give Dr. Stein millions of dollars if it means stopping a Trump presidency.
One thing is clear, the data in the exit polls is not as tight as the initial projections from 2016 electoral map results. How accurate those initial exit polls results will be revealed if the recount petitions are successful and move forward.
[Featured Image by Filo/istock Getty Images]