RFK Jr.'s Lead in Swing States May Change the Course for Republican Rival Donald Trump in 2024

It seems Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be more of a threat to Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 elections than Democrat Joe Biden. According to the poll results, RFK Jr. has gained increased support from the masses after announcing his independent bid in October 2023. So far, Trump is leading his party rivals in the GOP and seems to be their most likely choice for the presidential nomination.

However, new poll results reveal that RFK Jr. has been polling higher than any independent or third-party candidate in generations. Consequently, his growing popularity in America can affect the outcome of the upcoming elections next year, suggests the Quinnipiac University poll results conducted recently. When compared to his rivals Trump and Kennedy in a hypothetical general election, Biden holds 39% of the vote. Meanwhile, according to the same poll, Trump has 36% support, followed by Kennedy with 22%.

Although Kennedy is still behind his two rivals in the figures mentioned in the Quinnipiac polls, his independent lead shouldn't be taken lightly, as he hit 22% among registered voters; in American politics, no independent candidate has ever achieved this level of support. Before him, it was Ross Perot, who was the last independent presidential candidate to earn over 20% support in a poll within a year of the election in 1992, reported CNN. He ended up getting 19% of the popular vote. His popularity was, in a way, historic because mostly independent or third-party candidates fade as the election nears. 

The 1980 campaign saw John Anderson poll over 20%. In 1968, former Alabama Governor George Wallace topped out at 21% in pre-election polling as a third-party candidate, and it's worth noting that these three non-major-party candidates are the only ones to secure over 20% support.

Now, Kennedy has joined the league. So, gaining nearly one-third of the support in the general election poll is 'unbelievable,' implying that Kennedy Jr. could have enough followers to turn the tables on Trump and the current POTUS in 2024. Initially, "Bobby" was running as a Democrat for president. However, he changed his mind midway and chose an independent run.

In a separate poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Kennedy Jr. has more support among young Americans (aged 45 and under) in crucial battleground states than Trump or Biden, reported Fox News. The numbers in the survey say 34% of registered voters between 18 and 29 are behind Kennedy for President.

The independent candidate also has 31% support among the 30-44 age group when compared to Biden and Trump's matching 30%. Meanwhile, Republicans have a favorable view of Kennedy by a 30-point margin, and Democrats, on the other hand, have an unfavorable view by a 43-point margin, reported the Daily Mail.

According to this survey, Kennedy earned 24% support in Arizona, 23% in Georgia, 25% in Michigan, 19% in Nevada, and 21% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And these are key states in which Biden beat Trump in 2020. Although it's still too early to predict where the 2024 elections will be headed, political analysts can't afford to ignore Kennedy Jr.'s popularity and numbers in the poll among young Americans.