Presidential Debates And Predicting The Next President: Pundits, Polls, Prediction Market, And Betting Odds

Presidential debates and predicting the next president is a national pastime every leap year in the USA and increasingly around the world. Everyone from overseas internet bookies, to pollsters, to political commentary personalities will put in their two cents, many times before this election is over. With every primary and caucus the guessing will get easier, but here is a look at what the predictions are right now and why.

Watching presidential debates and predicting the next president using poll numbers and overall experience is something political pundits do best. Scholarly pundits like those at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics are predicting that by March 15, Donald Trump will have a clear victory for the Republican nomination. Much later in the convention process, because, and only because of superdelegates, Hillary will win the Democratic nomination. Sabato’s Crystal Ball an online publication of the University of Virginia, explains the real reason behind superdelegates.

Enjoy Watching The Latest Republican Presidential Debates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvoctS_soec

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcLw04ogyw8

“Sanders supporters, understandably, are upset about superdelegates, because superdelegates exist for the primary purpose of stopping outsider candidates like Sanders. After outsiders George McGovern (1972) and Jimmy Carter (1976) won the Democratic nomination.”

Therefore, because of superdelegates committed to Hillary at the convention, these and other pundits believe the race will come down between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but as the editor notes, the only ray of hope for Bernie would be if Hillary Clinton loses the minority vote, specifically the black vote. If that were to happen, it changes all predictions, and even the superdelegates would not be enough to help her.

Fortune reports bookies, too, are watching presidential debates and predicting the next president. Actually though, their odds are based on bets placed. While such handicapping experts know little about politics, they are experts on figuring the odds of just about everything. Online casinos are giving Donald Trump a 71 percent chance of wining the Republican nomination, and Hillary an 87 percent chance of gaining the Democratic Nomination. They give Hillary a 55 percent chance of wining the general election. Another betting site, Paddy Power, gave Donald Trump 5/2 odds, while giving Hillary Clinton 8/11 odds. Marco Rubio was placed at 6/1, while Sanders would be a 12/1 long shot.

Watching presidential debates is just a small part of predicting the next president, according to the Political Prediction Market, as administered by Pivit. KWCH Channel 12 out of Kansas explains how Pivit uses a combination of polls, internet user input, and other elements to arrive at their predictions. Greg DePetris of Pivot explains the value of this sort of data.

“The markets provide continuous, real-time feedback, and that data has contrasted clearly with the snapshot quality of polls. Those following these markets closely see trends developing much sooner than polls.”

Pivit gives Trump 70 percent odds of winning the Republican nomination, while Rubio gets 29 percent odds. Cruz was given only 2 percent. They place Hillary as the Democratic Nominee at 88 percent odds. Then Pivot predicts the Democratic Nominee to win at 62 percent odds.

Northpoth’s Model beats watching presidential debates and predicting the next president. The Daily Mail explains Northpoth is proven to be correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912. President John F. Kennedy was an anomaly that no formula could have predicted, but other than that one, almost too close to call race, Northpoth has been completely accurate as an indicator predicting the next president. It takes an expert no doubt, to apply the model, so it’s not easy for everyone to do at home, but it is a standard formula, incomprehensible to most people, but strangely accurate. Northpoth’s model applied to this election gives Trump a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary in the general election, or a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie.

If you’re watching presidential debates and predicting the next president and disagree with these or other predicted outcomes, help prove them wrong by voting.