At least one prediction market has officially listed United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the odds-on favorite to win the 2028 presidential election.
Kalshi gives Rubio, who previously ran for president in 2016, a 19% chance to become the United States’ next president as of March 11. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination, has hovered around 18%.
As of publication, Vice President JD Vance’s odds have dropped to 16%. None of the three has officially confirmed whether they intend to run for president in 2028.
BREAKING: Marco Rubio is now the odds favorite to win the 2028 Presidency pic.twitter.com/Vh2iloi9fp
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) March 11, 2026
Rubio’s favorability rating has surged in recent weeks as he establishes himself as a legitimate contender for the 2028 election. An NBC poll released earlier this month found that 34% of registered voters view him positively. Although 41% of voters have a negative opinion of Rubio, his -7% difference in approval rating is the best among the six politicians mentioned in the poll; voters were also asked to share their feelings on Vance, Newsom, President Donald Trump, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Newsom, who has been surrounded by numerous controversies — including allegations of racist and antisemitic commentary — while promoting his new memoir, had an -18 difference in approval rating, the worst among the six politicians. Ocasio-Cortez and Harris have both been suggested as potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 election.
Trump has publicly vouched for both Rubio and Vance as potential successors. He told reporters last year that he believed a ticket featuring the two would be “unstoppable.” Although Trump has hinted that he’d be open to running in 2028, the Constitution prohibits him from receiving a third term in office. Additionally, he turns 80 in June and has faced questions regarding his physical and mental health.
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump has just said a JD VANCE-MARCO RUBIO 2028 presidential ticket would be strong!
“We have JD. Marco is great.”
“If they formed a group, it would be unstoppable.”
“They don’t. They have Jasmine Crockett, AOC, low-IQ.” 😂
Make it happen! pic.twitter.com/PDJx4yUQaz
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 27, 2025
Politico reported last November that Rubio believes Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination. Additionally, Rubio told at least two sources that he would support Vance if the latter chooses to run. “No one expects Marco to resign from the Cabinet and start taking potshots at the sitting vice president,” a source told Politico at the time. “Beyond that, they’re friends.”
If Rubio runs for president, he won’t have history on his side. No sitting U.S. Secretary of State has ever successfully transitioned directly into the presidency without a gap or another role in between.
Rubio, Florida’s senator at the time, suspended his 2016 campaign shortly after placing second behind Trump on Super Tuesday. He spent a significant portion of that campaign criticizing Trump for his behavior and language. Rubio also mocked Trump’s affinity for Twitter (now known as X) and his penchant for misspelling things in his tweets.
However, Rubio later endorsed Trump and apologized to Trump for comments he made regarding his hands. Rubio then returned to the Senate, where he remained until he joined the current Trump administration.
