The Democratic primary appears to be shaping into a three-way race, with former Vice President Joe Biden, Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts separating themselves from the rest of the field.
According to a new poll from Emerson College, this is evident in the state of California, where Biden and Sanders are tied with 26 percent of the support. Closely trailing them is Warren, who has managed to amass the support of 20 percent of the California primary electorate.
The next group of candidates if far behind the trio. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang is polling at number four with seven percent of the vote, Senator Kamala Harris enjoys the support of six percent of the electorate, Texas native Beto O’Rourke is supported by five percent of California Democrats, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg by four.
Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is supported by two percent of California Democrats. Additionally, Cory Booker of New Jersey, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, and billionaire Tom Steyer are polling at one percent.
The survey is bad news for Kamala Harris, who is unable to gain momentum in her own state.
As Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball explained, Harris’ failure to gain support in a state which she represents in the Senate is a bad sign for her campaign, and unless she manages to make advances with voters in other early primary states, her campaign might fade away.
“Senator Kamala Harris is in trouble in her home state. If she is unable to gain momentum in Iowa or New Hampshire, come Super Tuesday she might have a similar fate to Sen. Marco Rubio in 2016, when he was unable to win his home state of Florida and dropped out of the race.”
Sanders’ coalition is the youngest, and most diverse. The Vermont senator convincingly leads the field among young Californians, 34 percent of whom support him. Warren is supported by 16 percent, and Biden by 11 percent of voters under the age of 50. Furthermore, Sanders has strong support from the Hispanic population, leading the group with 36 percentage points.
Among voters older than 50, Biden leads with 40 percent — the former vice president also enjoys the support of African Americans. Warren enjoys the support of white voters, 29 percent of whom plan on voting for her in the primary, and of the highly educated — only 1 percent of those with a high school degree or less support the Massachusetts senator.
Unlike Sanders and Biden’s, however, Warren’s support appears to be fragile. Thirty one percent of her supporters say they plan on sticking with her until the end, compared to 67 percent of Biden supporters, and 59 percent of Sanders supporters.
Biden is still the clear favorite, however. As previously reported by The Inquisitr, the former vice president has managed to maintain a formidable lead despite some setbacks.