As reported by the Associated Press, early voting results across the country are largely breaking in Hillary Clinton’s favor. There are some exceptions of course – such as Texas and Arizona – but for the most part Democrats benefit from early voting more than Republicans. In the Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump contest for battleground states, Clinton is particularly benefiting from early voting in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Early voting surged among Hispanics in key swing states this weekend, lifting Hillary Clinton's presidential hopes https://t.co/Y5Wm6TS7gF— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 6, 2016
Early Voting Themes
One of the principal themes seen in the early voting in all three of these states is the influence of minority voters on the 2016 election. The African-American vote in these states is going for Hillary Clinton in a big way, although not in the numbers they voted for Barack Obama.
Black turnout is down, but it's not 'low.' They're voting like nonblack voters. Half of black midterm vt still left. https://t.co/KIIGJ6Wxqf— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2016
The Hispanic vote is particularly relevant in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, since all have sizable Hispanic populations. Donald Trump has antagonized Hispanics throughout the country, and these voters are turning to Hillary Clinton in droves. In fact, early voting results suggest a much higher Hispanic turnout in this election than in previous ones.
Florida Early Voting Results
As reported by CNN, in Florida early voting a slightly larger number of Democrats than Republicans have already voted. But even though the early voting numbers in Florida – 2,268,663 Democrats and 2,261,383 Republicans – show only a 7,280 vote advantage for Democrats, this is a bit deceptive.
Early voting polls make it clear that Democrats are almost uniformly voting for Hillary Clinton – losing only 6 percent of their voters to Trump. On the other hand, some early voting results suggest that up to 28 percent of Republicans in Florida may be voting for Hillary Clinton. If this number is confirmed when the ballots are counted on Election Day, it will be devastating for the Trump campaign.
Apart from the early voting results, general 2016 election polls for Florida show Clinton with a 1-2 point lead over Donald Trump, but — with the early voting results seen above – these broader polls may be underestimating Clinton’s support in Florida.
North Carolina Early Voting Results
In North Carolina, early voting is a big deal and the results are quickly reported by state officials. The early voting in this state indicates a nine-point Hillary Clinton lead over Donald Trump. As of Saturday, 2,892,000 people had already voted, with the expectation that only about 1.8 million more will vote on Election Day.
The New York Times points out in their early voting results tracking that, while Donald Trump is getting 57 percent of the white vote in North Carolina, Hillary Clinton is winning the Hispanic vote by 78 percent and the black vote by 95 percent. These are significant numbers.
Democratic Party volunteers outside early voting site in Asheville, NC telling people that the FBI email investigation is a GOP conspiracy pic.twitter.com/pZrF4RHvC3— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) November 5, 2016
This means that Donald Trump would have to see a staggering and unprecedented shift in votes on Election Day to have any chance whatsoever of beating Hillary Clinton in North Carolina. It seems more likely – based on these numbers – that Clinton will finish 4-5 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump in this vital battleground state.
Nevada Early Voting Results
Another battleground state where the Hispanic vote seems to be having a very significant impact in early voting results is Nevada. While some recent general election polls had indicated Trump was closing in on Clinton in Nevada, the results of early voting suggest that this might not be the case.
As reported by ABC News, early voting is particularly high in Hispanic areas of Nevada like Clark County. Polling places were established in grocery stores and marketplaces in Hispanic communities, and the lines were literally around the block. Hours for these polling places had to be extended to accommodate all of the voters.
Not surprisingly, these early voting results in Nevada among Hispanic voters indicate that the likelihood of Donald Trump winning this particular battleground state is much lower than some previous polling had suggested. Moreover, registered Democrats were twice as likely to be voting in these areas than registered Republicans. All of this bodes ill for Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential aspirations.
[Featured Image by Alex Wong/Getty Images]