The number of Republicans in the House of Representatives not running for reelection is shocking to say the least. According to The Independent, a record number of 36 Republicans have decided not to run for reelection in the midterms. The Brookings Institution reports that it is the largest number of Republicans who quit a midterm election cycle since the Great Depression in 1930.
Experts believe it is bad news for Donald Trump and his party. It also indicates that Democrats are likely heading toward a blue wave, especially as they have already been outperforming the GOP in special elections. This comes as the President is already struggling with his approval ratings, especially among voters who are not satisfied with his war on Iran.
A similar Republican withdrawal took place in 2018, after the failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act and Trump’s family separation policy for undocumented immigrants. That year, 34 Republicans announced that they wouldn’t be running for reelection, and as a result, Democrats won back the House with a net margin of 41 seats.
Harry Enten: House Republicans are running for the exits faster than kids do on the final day of school. So far this cycle, already 36 House retirements. That is the grand record over the last 100 years. You don’t run for the exits unless you know trouble is brewing, and House… pic.twitter.com/bmEJCXoQIP
— FactPost (@factpostnews) March 30, 2026
According to The Independent, while 36 Republicans are not seeking reelection, the numbers are 21 for Democrats. Experts think that if a minority party believes that they will win the House, there would be fewer retirements as they would have a better chance at leadership positions. On the other hand, retirements offer a better solution for the party that could lose the House, saving it from humiliation.
The outlet reported that not all Republicans’ withdrawals are because of exhaustion with Congress. Some are due to running for governor, including Reps. Randy Feenstra, Byron Donalds, Buddy Carter, and Wesley Hunt.
Then, there are instances like Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has decided to run for governor of New York. However, the POTUS and House Speaker Mike Johnson nominated her to be ambassador to the United Nations. Shortly after, she announced that she would not run for governor or even seek reelection.
Some of the retirements indicate that Republicans now think that they could lose their seats. That does not mean Democrats don’t have any sudden retirements. Although House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Jerry Nadler, and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer have decided to head for the exits, are expected to remain in Democratic hands.
Exclusive: Missouri Republican Rep. Sam Graves, chairman of the House Committee on Transportation, is pulling his plans to seek re-election https://t.co/DCSN4Bgeyu
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 27, 2026
According to The Independent, only two seats are considered competitive: Rep. Chris Pappas of New Hampshire, as he is running for the Senate, and Rep. Jared Golden of Maine, whose district voted for Trump.
While the Democrat retirements do not guarantee a Blue wave, other factors, such as the economy, Trump’s war on Iran, and poll numbers, indicate that a change is coming to the House.
