Viktor Orbán’s chances of winning Hungary’s Parliamentary election have decreased in betting markets after U.S. Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest and praised the Prime Minister just days before the vote, according to Newsweek.
Newsweek reported that Polymarket had Orbán at 28% on Thursday, down from 35% on April 5. Kalshi showed a similar trend, placing Orbán at 30%, compared to 33.3% five days earlier. The outlet noted that there is no clear evidence that Vance’s visit caused this shift, although it occurred after his appearance in the Hungarian capital on Wednesday.
At a press conference in Budapest, Vance expressed his support for Orbán in his campaign and commended him ahead of Hungary’s April 12 election.
Vance later spoke at an Orbán campaign rally, telling supporters, “We want you to make a decision about your future without outside forces pressuring you or telling you what to do. I’m not specifying exactly who to vote for, but what I am saying is that the bureaucrats in Brussels should not be followed.”
JD Vance in Budapest:
“We have got to get Viktor Orbán reelected as Prime Minister of Hungary, don’t we?”
pic.twitter.com/E3kkHxKgn4
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) April 7, 2026
President Donald Trump also showed his support by phone from Washington, saying, “I love Hungary, and I love Viktor. I’m telling you he’s a fantastic man. I’m a big fan of Viktor. I’m with him all the way,” according to Newsweek.
This election has become one of Orbán’s most challenging political tests in years. Newsweek reported that his Fidesz party has been in power for 16 years and has won four consecutive elections.
However, it now faces significant competition from the opposition Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar. Two opinion polls from early March cited by the magazine showed Tisza in the lead, though a more recent survey from the Nezopont Institute found Orbán’s Fidesz coalition with a 6-point edge.
Orbán has been one of Trump’s closest allies in Europe and has supported Trump in the 2024 U.S. election. Trump returned the favor earlier this month by calling Orbán a “true friend, fighter, and WINNER,” according to Newsweek.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also visited Budapest in February and praised the Hungarian leader, asserting that Trump was committed to his success.
Vance, who flew to Budapest to endorse Victor Orban in Sunday’s elections, accuses the EU and Ukraine of interfering in Hungary’s elections.
Yup, you read that correctly. pic.twitter.com/2IB8uJBASL
— Piotr Zalewski (@p_zalewski) April 7, 2026
For Orbán, the backing from Washington provides a strong message to leverage in the final stretch, especially as his government positions itself as a defender of national sovereignty against pressure from Brussels. However, the latest market trends indicate that the endorsements have not yet given a significant boost.
Zsuzsanna Szelényi, director of the Democracy Institute Leadership Academy at Central European University, previously told Newsweek that this election feels different from the last four because “Orbán has been in power for 15 years, and there is a general fatigue with this government.”
This sense of fatigue, coupled with Magyar’s rise, has transformed what once appeared to be another routine Orbán campaign into a much tighter race.
Hungary votes on April 12. If Orbán wins, he will extend one of Europe’s longest-running nationalist governments. If he loses, it would be a significant political upset and could alter Budapest’s relationship with Washington, especially as Trump’s administration has openly supported him.
