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Latest Presidential Polls 2016: A Complete Forecast, Clinton Losing Lead, Narrow Win For Trump Possible

By Hemal Vora

From the archive: published Nov 5, 2016, 10 years ago. Details may have changed since.

The presidential race has tightened over the last few weeks. Different Polls are predicting different results, some even predicting a tie.

With only a few days left for the Election Day, Clinton seems to be losing the lead. Donald Trump has closed a considerable gap on Hillary’s lead in the past few weeks.

Latest Presidential Polls 2016 suggest Clinton’s lead has come down to about one point. The former first lady is at 47 percent whereas Trump is just behind at 45.6 percent. The lead in mid-October was nine-point strong following Trump’s controversial comments and allegations of sexual misconduct.

Last week, the FBI had announced a new investigation into Clinton’s use of the private server. Latest polls suggest this has given Trump a late boost. The investigation will probably not be completed before the Election Day. But there will be no new polls to show the impact of the announcement.

The FBI has also obtained a warrant to investigate emails belonging to Huma Abedin, a top aide to Hillary Clinton. Before these announcements, some polls showed Hillary leading by 14 points.

Fox Polls : +1 For Clinton

Presidential Polls 2016 by Fox suggest Clinton is leading Trump by two percent. Polls clearly show she has lost the lead over a period. Gary Johnson gets five percent and Jill Stein two percent. That leaves four percent as undecided. In a two-way contest, Clinton leads Trump by just one percent. The margin of error for the poll was 3 percent.

LA Times/ USC – +5 For Trump

The LA Times/USC polls have shown Trump reaching the 270 mark. The recent survey gives Trump a lead of five percent over Clinton. The Polls shows Trump at 48 percent and Clinton at 43 percent. This is ideal for Trump who was once considered trailing by 14 points. The LA Times poll has consistently shown Trump leading.

Telegraph’s Poll of Polls – +2 Clinton

The Telegraph polls take an average of last five polls published in RealClearPolitics. It shows Clinton still retains the lead. According to The Telegraph ‘s polls, Clinton has always stayed ahead regardless of the Scandals, DOJ, and FBI investigations.

Where is Trump Leading

Some latest polls showed Trump leading in Utah over Evan McMullin. Trump is also leading in Missouri, Indiana, and Texas where according to earlier Polls 2016, Clinton was leading.

Trump has a comfortable lead in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada.

Where is Clinton Leading

For Clinton to achieve the magic figure of 270, she needs to win in her firewall states. RCP Polls average shows Clinton in lead of 1.2 percent, down from an earlier 4 percent lead. Polls show that in Pennsylvania, Clinton is leading by 2.6 percent which again is down from nine percent lead.

Latest presidential polls suggest Clinton has a comfortable lead in Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, and Wisconsin.

If the “Silent Majority” scenario turns out to be true, Clinton can lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Silent majority are people who are embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they are going to vote for Trump. Trump said the following.

“When I poll, I do fine. But when I run, I do much better.”

There may be some truth to the story of “Silent Majority.” In online and automated polls where there was no possibility of judgement, Clinton’s lead has been comparatively lower.

Latest Presidential Polls 2016 show a narrow overall lead for Clinton and these puts even more importance in the Swing States. Several Polls show Trump leading in Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Hillary had a clear lead in all these states. According to polls, Trump is leading in North Carolina but with a small lead and Clinton leading Florida with an even smaller lead.

Hillary’s campaign can also be affected by Gary Johnson. Polls show him around 4-6 percent. He could be a spoiler and divide Hillary’s vote, giving an edge to Trump. Such a situation could be seen in the states of Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

The latest FBI investigation of Clinton’s email does not seem to have a major impact on the outcome. But it has surely forced Clinton on the defensive.

Latest Presidential Polls 2016 suggests Trump has chances of winning, which a few weeks back was a distant possibility. Clinton’s lead is within the margin of sampling error, which leaves the outcomes of the elections wide open.

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