A litany of factors came into play when Donald Trump was able to defeat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and win the presidency back in 2016. However, Trump’s ability to rally blue collar voters in key battleground states may have been chief among them. An investigative report by Politico indicates that those same states have incurred greater-than-average job losses recently as the American economy struggles through the coronavirus pandemic. That trend could have major ramifications on Trump’s 2020 battle with former Vice President Joe Biden.
Per Politico ‘s analysis of Labor Department data, job losses are mounting in Michigan, where more than one in four workers have filed for unemployment in recent weeks. Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in the state during the last general election — 47.5 percent to 47.27 percent — thanks in large part to his efforts to court the working class there.
Michigan isn’t the only Trump-carried state that is losing jobs, either. Pennsylvania, which also voted for Trump in 2016, has seen nearly the same percentage of its own workforce file unemployment claims since the middle of March. Meanwhile, more than 17 percent of workers in Ohio have filed claims, which is greater than the national average.
Per MSNBC and other outlets, 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment thus far in the wake of the outbreak-induced economic downturn.
In the nation’s largest battleground state, Florida, the loss of jobs has been below the national average, but those who have been laid off have encountered issues in recent weeks when attempting to file for unemployment, according to Politico . As of last week, approximately 6 percent of applicants had begun to receive benefit payments in the state, which places its efficacy among the worst systems in the United States. Susan MacManus — a political analyst in Florida and former chair of the state’s Elections Commission — told Politico that she believes voters will remember these developments in November.
“It’s the most consistently negative aspect of this whole situation in Florida, the unemployment benefits system not working. If you’re a single parent, if you’re a head of a household, you’re not going to forget this.”
Trump, who is reportedly seeking foreign aid for his own failing golf courses, beat Clinton by just over one point in Florida in 2016, and carrying the state once again in 2020 could be key in his ability to secure a second term. For his part, Marquette Law School professor and pollster Charles Franklin told Politico that the country’s current economic and joblessness crises will likely impact Trump’s re-election bid.
“It’s really rare for an incumbent administration to get positive credit for bad times. The longer this crisis lasts, the more difficult that is for the Trump administration to deal with.”
