There’s a solid reason why analysts now believe that Donald Trump’s attack on Iran may have strengthened Iran’s leadership rather than weakening it. As the tensions between the United States and Iran are intensifying following recent military strikes, many stories related to the topic are emerging online.
According to Raw Story, the new claims by analysts emerged after the reported death of Iran’s long-time Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the latest round of conflict. Soon afterwards, Iranian authorities moved quickly to appoint a successor, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Some experts believe this decision signals strong resistance to outside pressure.
According to political analyst Stephen Collinson from CNN, the change in Iran’s leadership could expose a major flaw in the Trump administration’s strategy, which is aimed at forcing regime change in Tehran.
“No one from the outside can know its true state after days of aerial pounding of government facilities and heavy loss of life,” Collinson wrote in an analysis published Tuesday. “But so far, the operation has succeeded only in replacing an aged supreme leader—who was already close to his eternal rest—with a younger version with the same last name.”
PRESIDENT TRUMP on Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei: “I was disappointed because we think it’s gonna lead to just more of the same problem for the country. So I was disappointed to see their choice.” pic.twitter.com/3ELoP8e69b
— Fox News (@FoxNews) March 9, 2026
Through his analysis, Collinson argues that the immediate appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei could be a “clear signal of defiance” from Iran’s ruling clerical establishment and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Hence, they want the military force to play a central role in maintaining the country’s political system.
“The choice of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his martyred father as supreme leader was a signal of defiance from the theocracy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that rule Iran with an iron fist,” he wrote. “It remains unclear how Khamenei will be able to consolidate power in such extreme circumstances.”
The strikes, ordered by Trump, were carried out earlier this month and targeted Iranian military and government infrastructure. It was a part of a strategy by the United States and Israel to weaken the Islamic Republic’s leadership. However, Collinson believes the campaign may not lead to the popular uprising that some policymakers hoped to see.
“There’s no outward sign that the uprising of Iranians against their corrupt and repressive rulers that Trump sought to trigger is about to materialize,” he wrote.
Recent history supports that concern. In previous protests across Iran, thousands of demonstrators were reportedly killed or detained by security forces during crackdowns on anti-government movements. Analysts warn that external military pressure can sometimes strengthen authoritarian governments by encouraging nationalist unity against foreign intervention.
Collinson added that the long-term impact of the strikes could even lead to tighter government control.
“It seems just as likely that the unintended result of the war will be more repression rather than a flowering of freedom,” he wrote.
On the other hand, the conflict has also raised urgent strategic questions for Washington. One is the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large portion of the world’s oil supply travels.
🚨 BREAKING — PRESIDENT TRUMP SENDS NATION-ENDING ULTIMATUM TO IRAN
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.
Additionally, we will take… pic.twitter.com/tl0DRl2nli
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) March 10, 2026
“Will Trump use force to try to open the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s vital oil conduit, which has been all but closed by Iran?” Collinson noted.
The war is still ongoing, and experts say the coming months will determine whether the strikes reshape Iran’s political landscape or deepen conflict in the Middle East.
