U.S. intelligence reports do not back President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran will soon have missiles capable of hitting the American mainland. This information comes from three people familiar with the reports and contradicts a key point Trump used to rally public support for possible military action against Tehran.
Trump made this claim during his State of the Union address on Tuesday, telling lawmakers that Iran was working on missiles that would soon be able to reach the United States. However, two sources informed Reuters that an unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency assessment from 2025 has not changed. It still concludes that Iran might not develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile from its current space launch vehicles until 2035.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defended Trump’s focus on Iran’s missile goals. She described it as a serious concern and pointed out aggressive Iranian slogans against the United States.
One source indicated that even with outside help, Iran would still need years to deploy an operational ICBM. The source said Iran could require up to eight years at the earliest to produce a missile that meets ICBM standards and is operational, even if China or North Korea offered technical support. The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect sensitive intelligence.
The difference between Trump’s statements and the intelligence findings came to light as U.S. and Iranian officials continued talks about Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump warned of possible strikes if no deal was reached while the United States built up its military presence in the region, according to Reuters.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed a more cautious approach than Trump when discussing Iran’s development. Rubio stated that Iran is on a path to eventually develop weapons that could reach the continental United States.
“Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei…” – President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/oXZTFGg5pS
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) February 28, 2026
Iran has denied trying to develop nuclear weapons. The Iranian government claims its uranium enrichment supports civilian purposes. However, U.S. intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran continues to enrich uranium, even to near weapons-grade levels.
In an interview released on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran does not pursue long-range missiles and outlined self-imposed limits. “We are not developing long-range missiles. We have limited our range to below 2000 kilometers intentionally,” Araghchi said, adding that Iran’s missiles are for deterrence and defense.
Reuters also reported that Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. Their systems can reach Israel, U.S. bases in the region, and parts of Europe. Analysts have long monitored Iran’s space launch vehicles because similar technologies could, in theory, support longer-range missiles. However, experts say there are significant challenges, including designing a re-entry vehicle that can withstand the heat and forces of atmospheric re-entry.
David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, told Reuters that while Iran could launch a long-range missile due to its space program, it still needs to address substantial issues with the re-entry vehicle necessary for a warhead.
