President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has dropped to a new low in his second term as independent voters distance themselves from him.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Monday that Trump’s declining numbers reflect a significant drop among independents. “When you lose the center of the electorate, you lose the American people,” Enten stated during an on-air segment, according to Newsweek.
Enten referenced a Quinnipiac University poll conducted from January 29 to February 2 among 1,191 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. In that poll, Trump’s net approval among independents fell to 27 points below zero, compared to 17 points below zero at a similar time in his first term, Enten noted.
“I don’t understand how this works out well for the president of the United States. When you are 27 points underwater with the center of the electorate, with independents, you lose, your party loses,” Enten remarked.
The outlet also shared a statement from White House spokesperson Davis Ingle from last week, where he claimed Trump was “overwhelmingly elected by nearly 80 million Americans to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda,” and added that the president had “already made historic progress not only in America but around the world.”
Some talk about Trump’s floor of support… I’m not sure he has a floor!
His net approval is at a term 2 low across a number of pollsters.
Trump’s now in worse shape than he was at this point in term 1 or where Biden was at this point in his one term.
He’s way underwater. pic.twitter.com/djVTFzztSq
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 16, 2026
The recent polling shows a trend across multiple surveys indicating that Trump performs better with Republicans and worse with independents, particularly on issues like immigration and the economy.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted from January 20 to January 26 found that Americans’ views of Trump were “already more negative than positive” and that those views had “continued to slip” one year into his second administration. A YouGov/Economist analysis published January 27 reported record-low job approval for Trump among independents in its tracking.
Independents also showed decreasing support for Trump’s immigration actions in an AP-NORC poll released this month. The poll found that about 6 in 10 U.S. adults said Trump had “gone too far” in deploying federal immigration agents into American cities, with independent approval dropping from 37% last spring to 23%.
Enten mentioned that the scale of Trump’s independent numbers now makes traditional comparisons less helpful, arguing that the best benchmark is Trump’s own previous performance. Newsweek reported that Enten referred to independents as the political “center of gravity” in national elections and stated that parties usually suffer when this group turns away from the president.
Trump has publicly challenged negative polling in recent weeks. Newsweek quoted a Truth Social post from earlier this month where Trump stated he had “The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received” and claimed, “Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!”
With the 2026 midterms approaching, political strategists and party leaders often monitor independents for early signs of momentum shifts in competitive House districts and closely divided Senate races. Trump’s independent base is critical to turning over tightly contested districts. It is yet to be seen how the midterms will be affected in districts where the independent vote put the president over the edge to win seats.
