When asked about the upcoming election and redistricting efforts, a leading expert has declared that the Democratic Party has clearly won this round of the gerrymandering war. He also claimed that the current congressional maps heavily favor Democrats, and if this continues, they have a greater chance of winning in the 2026 midterm elections.
Jonathan Cervas was speaking with Dan Abrams on a SiriusXM show where he argued that if there are no major political or legal changes in the current landscape of both parties, Democrats may end up gaining significant benefits in the upcoming election cycle.
Jonathan Cervas is an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University and is considered to be a redistricting expert.
Cervas also claimed that if the district remains in the exact count, it may help Democrats in the 2028 general elections too.
Breaking News: California voters agreed to aggressively redraw the state’s congressional district lines to wipe out as many as five Republican seats, according to The Associated Press, delivering a major victory for national Democrats. https://t.co/2H6ta9gf9p pic.twitter.com/PKhCVwwb1M
— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 5, 2025
According to Cervas, the recent developments in key states are proof of the Democrats’ advantage. He specifically mentioned Texas, where the state is now required to keep its 2021 congressional and legislative map after a federal judge ruled against the efforts of the current Republican state government. The judge had called the gerrymandering efforts race-based and thus called them unconstitutional.
This decision threw out the Republican effort of adding more red districts in an attempt to put more members in Congress.
However, things were rather opposite in California, where voters recently approved a ballot measure and basically gave the current Democratic legislature a free rein to redraw the district maps.
With this action, Democrats are now expected to grow their House delegations. Cervas also claimed that this newly approved map could give Democrats as many as 5 additional seats in Congress.
However, Cervas has also accepted that the war is not yet over for Democrats as redistricting is a dynamic process. He has warned the left not to celebrate too soon and warned of Republican efforts in other states. He is sure, some of the states could hand the republican side a few seats, which has the potential of turning the map on its head.
The Trump-appointed judge who just blocked Texas’ gerrymandered map has cited statements from the Trump administration to justify his decision. pic.twitter.com/MfJibh1iLU
— People For the American Way (@peoplefor) November 19, 2025
Nonetheless, as for now, the overall outlook is rather bleak for Republicans who were relying heavily on redistricting as always. In Texas, the right made a few very aggressive moves, which did not pay this time. Political experts are of the opinion that the Republican Party may try these tactics once again, since one can manipulate electoral politics through gerrymandering.
Recent studies have shown that constant redrawing of maps and an increase in political polarization has reduced the competitive districts. This often favors the party with redrawn maps.
Now it remains to be seen if the redrawn maps actually have the power, and how far Republicans will go to get their numbers back up.
For now, Cervas’s argument paints a clear picture that Democrats hold the upper hand in the gerrymandering war.
