Donald Trump’s impeachment odds get worse (for him, anyway) by the day, as he approaches his first State of the Union address and in light of recent allegations that he tried to fire special counsel Robert Mueller, Yahoo News is reporting.
There are two ways to look at the issue of Trump’s impeachment odds. The first concerns the odds as they relate to gambling: that is, what the betting public seems to think will happen based on the offerings of websites that allow you to place bets on such things. The second concerns what political analysts actually believe will happen. And the two ways of looking at things don’t always produce the same results.
What The Betting Public Thinks
You may be surprised to know that, in some places anyway (Europe, in this case), betting on the outcome of things other than sports events — politics, reality TV competitions, what may or may not happen at the next royal wedding — is a thing and is legal. And Irish website Paddy Power is one of many websites that offers action (as they say in the gambling industry) on Trump’s impeachment.
For example, you can place a bet (if you live in an area where it’s legal to do so) on the question of “Will Donald Trump Be Impeached In His First Term?” with odds of 8:11 (that is, if you bet 11 euros, you win 8, plus your original bet, for a total win of 19 euros) for “No”, and even money for “Yes.”
— Deadspin (@Deadspin) January 30, 2018
And on the question of the “Year That Trump Is Impeached,” the odds favor sooner rather than later. You get odds of 9:4 for 2018, 4:1 for 2019, and 16:1 for 2020.
What Do Actual Political Analysts Think?
The opinions of the betting public are one thing; analyses by people who are paid to understand these things are another matter entirely. So what do people who make their living dissecting politics think of the chances of Trump being impeached?
Over at Slate, Ben Mathis-Lilley has been maintaining the Impeach-O-Meter for months now, as Ben looks at the data and lays out odds of Trump being impeached, updating the Meter as new information comes and goes. He appears to err on the side of caution, at least for now; as of this writing, Mathis-Lilley puts the odds of Trump being impeached at 45 percent.
Similarly, Washington Post writers David Weigel and Sean Sullivan both point out that “The I-Word,” as they call it — that is, impeachment — rarely comes up in Washington. Indeed, most congressional Democrats are wary of even saying the word for fear of Republicans using it against them as a campaign issue in the mid-term elections.
Simply put, while the betting public may be bullish on the idea of Trump being impeached, and soon, the actual reality in Washington is less enthusiastic.