Donald Trump is losing the support of the same voters who largely helped get him elected, particularly the rural, white, blue-collar voters who make up much of his base, the Atlantic is reporting.
Trump was elected largely on the support of voters who felt under-represented and forgotten by Washington: the farmers, factory workers, evangelicals, and less-educated, who voted for him in droves. A year later, the 45th president is losing that support, according to an analysis of data provided by non-partisan public-opinion monitor SurveyMonkey.
Specifically, Trump’s loss of support among various groups breaks down as follows.
- All White Voters Without A College Degree: Trump got 66 percent of their vote in 2016; now only 56 percent still support him.
- All White Voters with a College Degree: 48 percent supported Trump in the election; now just 40 percent support him.
- White Women Voters Without A College Degree: 61 percent supported Trump in 2016; now just 49 percent do.
- White Women Voters with a College Degree: Trump barely got an edge over Hillary Clinton in this demographic, with 51 percent giving him their support in 2016. Now, a year later, 66 percent of them disapprove of Trump and 58 percent strongly disapprove.
- Younger White Men Voters without a College Degree: The group that Atlantic writer Ronald Brownstein describes as Trump’s “most natural supporters” is almost evenly split, with 49 percent approving of Trump and 49 percent disapproving.
- White Men Voters with a College Degree: This demographic, which can generally be counted on to be a reliable Republican vote, gave Trump 53 percent of their votes in 2016; today that same number (53 percent) say they disapprove of his performance.
If the news is bad for Trump in demographics that supported him in 2016, it’s even worse among voters who generally didn’t support him in the election. For example, among blacks, Trump’s support is downright abysmal. Twenty-three percent of black men approve of Trump, while only 11 percent of black women do. Among Latinos, Trump’s approval also breaks down sharply among gender lines: he has a 40 percent approval rating among Latino men voters over 50, while he only has 40 percent approval among Latino women of all age groups.
Still, SurveyMonkey’s overall data shows a better picture of the president’s approval ratings than other polls do. According to an analysis of SurveyMonkey’s metadata, Trump’s approval rating a year after the election is around 42 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. By comparison, a Gallup poll released by Newsweek earlier this week shows Trump with a historically low approval rating of only 37 percent, down from 39 percent in December.
The picture that emerges from Trump’s waning support among his base is clear: whatever social divides existed among the voters before Trump got elected have only gotten bigger, not smaller, since Trump was elected.