Most polling suggests that former Vice President Joe Biden is leading incumbent Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential race. But two experts predict that Trump will win by a wide margin in November because current polling isn’t capturing the whole story.
According to an opinion piece published on The Hill, recent polls have three flaws that prevent them from showing an accurate picture.
The pundits first wrote that they believe the questions that are posed to respondents are framed in a way that influences the answer.
“In fact, Gallup has found that respondents can answer very differently to questions with the same topic even in the same survey based on the language that’s used,” the authors wrote.
Part of the issue, they argued, is that individuals want to give socially acceptable answers in order to avoid judgment or confrontation.
The current political climate leads some people to believe that showing support for Trump and Vice President Mike Pence is undesirable, so they supposedly avoid giving an honest answer. The authors pointed to a recent poll by the right-leaning Cato Institute that showed two-thirds of respondents saying that they felt the political climate was so “harsh” that they feared telling pollsters the truth.
The second purported issue is that polling samples tend to exclude a number of demographics that can sway what polls show versus what happens in reality.
For instance, reaching individuals on a landline rather than a cellphone can impact the demographic. It’s also not certain the people who are polled are the same who will show up to cast their votes. While that’s always an issue, right now there is a particular problem among some Trump supporters who apparently don’t trust pollsters.
The third element has to do with the current news cycle.
“What’s going on in a particular moment in time can influence voter attitudes, particularly in swing states,” the authors argued.
They pointed to the story of Hunter Biden’s alleged emails as having an impact on the opinions of voters that may not have been reflected in polling.
“Admittedly, no poll is perfect. That’s why RealClearPolitics takes a step forward by ‘averaging out’ these errors across polls. But ‘averaging out’ only works when errors are made in both directions. Here, many polls make errors primarily in one direction, so the average will still reflect some of the biases that exist,” they concluded.
The prediction flies in the face of many other experts who recently predicted that Biden is certain to win. Meanwhile, others have concurred that he could be facing a bigger challenge than surveys have indicated, as The Inquisitr previously reported.