Statistician Nate Silver’s political analysis website, FiveThirtyEight, has predicted that Donald Trump has just a 29 percent chance of winning re-election in November, with his presumed opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, facing a 71 percent chance at victory.
Ever since the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton led in the polls only to lose, some people have questioned the accuracy of predictions like those made by FiveThirtyEight. But the respected statisticians behind the report explained that while the former secretary of state had only a small lead in most polls, Biden’s lead over Trump is much larger.
“As elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley wrote last week, Biden’s lead over Trump has already topped Clinton’s post-convention peak. Biden also enjoys more overall support than Clinton. In other words, there’s a genuine difference between Biden’s position now and Clinton’s four years ago,” the site noted.
This is the first prediction that Silver and his team have made since Biden announced that Senator Kamala Harris will be his running mate in the 2020 race.
To reach their conclusion, Silver and his team simulated the election based on current polling 40,000 times. His model estimated the possible Electoral College outcome for each candidate. In a vast majority of those calculations, Biden came out ahead.
That said, they noted that things could change in the coming weeks as both the Republican National Convention and the Democratic National Convention are scheduled to kick-off.
“So while it’s clear that Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump right now — nationally and in most battleground states — the forecast shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning because there’s still plenty of time for the race to tighten,” FiveThirtyEight noted.
The tightest races right now appear to be in North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.
The report has had Biden winning by as much as 80 points in past polls, with Trump’s chances of winning as low as 20 percent. The incumbent hasn’t won re-election in any scenario they’ve examined thus far. However, as the site wrote, as the election gets closer, there will be more polling to work with, and the forecast will become more accurate.
This finding echoes that of other experts, who say that Trump has a tough road ahead of him.
The news isn’t all good for Biden, however. A recent study by Rasmussen Reports found that a majority of Americans believe that he won’t be able to complete his entire four-year term if he does win the race for the Oval Office. The majority of those queried, 59 percent, thought that he wouldn’t last through his term, with younger respondents more likely to predict a negative outcome, as The Inquisitr previously reported.