The poll, in which 933 registered voters were interviewed over July 3 and July 4, shows that 43 percent would vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee if the election were held today, compared to 39 percent who say they would vote for Donald Trump.
That’s a six-point drop from a poll taken by the same agency a month ago, between June 1 and June 4. In that poll, Biden emerged with a 10-point lead. Forty-seven percent said they’d vote for Biden, as opposed to 37 percent who chose Trump.
Meanwhile, in the July poll, 18 percent of voters didn’t indicate their support for either candidate. Among those voters, 5 percent said they would vote for someone else, 5 percent said they wouldn’t vote, and 8 percent said they remained undecided.
Broken down by age groups, the poll shows a starker split when it comes to older versus younger voters. Among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, 52 percent said they support Biden. By comparison, 24 percent of the voters in this age group support Trump.
Trump holds a lead among voters between the ages of 35 and 49, with 34 percent supporting Biden to 45 percent support Trump. And among voters between the ages of 50 and 64, an equal amount — 42 percent — support each candidate.
Biden, as Democrats traditionally do, has strong support among Black and Latinx voters. Biden currently holds a 62 point lead over Trump among Black voters (73 percent to 11 percent), and a 31 point lead among Latinx voters (54 percent to 23 percent). By comparison, among white voters, Trump is favored by 13 points, leading Biden 48 percent to 35 percent.
Do the results of The Hill/HarrisX poll reflect a trend among other polls? So far, there doesn’t appear to be a clear answer, as other polls show different results.
According to FiveThirtyEight, two recent Ipsos polls, conducted on July 6-7, show Biden leading Trump by six points in each poll. A YouGov poll conducted on July 5-7 has Biden leading by nine points, and a Rasmussen poll from the same time period has Biden leading by 10 points.
By comparison, a Monmouth University poll conducted on June 26-30 had Biden up by 12 points.
The polls referenced above only show a sampling of nationwide votes. However, the president is elected not by the popular vote, but by electoral votes.
According to 270towin, as of this writing, Biden can count on 248 electoral votes to Trump’s expected 204. A number of swing states, including Florida and Arizona, are considered toss-ups. Should either of them go to Biden, the former vice president would have a majority of electoral votes and win the election.