A Saturday report from Politico claimed that U.S. President Donald Trump has gone from “losing” the battle for reelection to “flailing” as Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a strong lead.
“Trump has privately acknowledged he’s losing, and he is desperate to correct course,” the report read.
“Republicans view the debates as an opportunity to gain ground, as Bush did following Dukakis’ emotionless response to a question about the death penalty in the event his wife, Kitty, ‘were raped and murdered.'”
According to the report, the “underlying environment” of the current American moment may be so “historically bad” for Trump that he will both lose in November and create a significant shift in the country’s electorate. In particular, the report points to the defection of seniors and suburban voters to Biden, as well as once-red states — like Texas — that have become competitive.
Paul Maslin, a top Democratic pollster who worked on Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign, said he wouldn’t be surprised if Biden ends up winning the 2020 general election by 8 to 10 percentage points.
However, Kelly Dietrich, founder of the National Democratic Training Committee, noted that the current polling and momentum Biden has on his side are only a “snapshot.” According to Dietrich, the state of the electoral battle in November is still unpredictable.
During a CNBC appearance on Friday, Inderjeet Parmar, professor of International Politics at City University, claimed that Trump’s failure to unite and lead the country amid the coronavirus pandemic will haunt him in November.
“President Trump has made his bed, and I think in the end he’s going to pay a terrible price, and that price is already being paid by a very large number of American people, both in terms of their health, and also in terms of the economy.”
As Politico notes, there are still four months before November, which is plenty of time for Biden to slip up. He could say something unfavorable at the debate, have an unsatisfactory interview or press conference, or his favorability could take a hit from Trump’s advertising campaign. In addition, there is the chance that the announcement of a coronavirus vaccine or a rebounding economy — both things out of Biden’s control — could turn the tides in Trump’s favor.
Still, Trump’s recent polling reportedly has Republicans anxious about the party’s prospects in November. According to Scott Jennings, a top political adviser in the George W. Bush White House, there is a sense that Trump has yet to create a cohesive platform and message to entice voters to give him a second term.